marchmadness
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Post by marchmadness on Sept 14, 2019 20:57:59 GMT -5
Somewhat better and deeper so far (as expected) compared to last year. But still a weaker region overall. Biggest question is will Glenville get in at 7-3 as a 7 or 8 seed or will they get left out. They are not going to score a lot of points beating the D2, 3, and 4 Senate league teams with bad records.
Other big question is will the SBC Lake teams beat each other up or will someone or two teams emerge as being better than everyone else. I personally think everyone will have at least 1 league loss.
For sures: Mansfield 3-0-Could easily go 10-0. Can't see them worse than 8-2. Tiffin Columbian 3-0-Should have no problem in their other non-league games. We all know how tough the Lake will be. I'll say 9-1 or 8-2
Most likely: Sandusky-3-0 Tough games left against Mansfield, Tiffin, Norwalk, Bellevue and Clyde. I'll guess 8-2 and they will surely make the playoffs at 7-3 Norwalk 2-1 Should have no problems in the rest of non league. I'll say 8-2 or 7-3. Medina Buckeye 2-1- In a tougher league now, so not as easy before. Looking at 7-3 or 6-4. Revere 2-1-I think they are almost a for sure. Schedule should play out with a loss vs. Aurora and potentially one more, but I see them at no less than 7-3 Holy Name 2-1 Very good team. Play a tough schedule, so can they get enough wins. If they do, they will be a tough first round matchup despite the 7-3 or even maybe 6-4 record. Bay 2-1- Got a big win tonight vs. Elyria Catholic. Head to heads with Revere, Holy Name and Rocky River will be huge. Probably would want to win 2 of those. I think they can finish anywhere from 7-3 to 5-5
Bubble: Glenville 0-3 Will go 7-3 no doubt. Easiest to predict. Rogers-They stink, but so does their schedule. They could finish 8-2 somehow even though they stink. 8-2 would get them in and make someone happy for an easy game in week 11. Rocky River 2-1 weakest team of all those mentioned above in their league. Would need to win some big head to heads against those teams. West Holmes 1-2 Would need to beat Mount Vernon to help them pick up some big points and get in the mix. I see them at 6-4 or 5-5. River Valley 3-0. Record looks good, but they have played a soft schedule. They will need to beat a Clear Fork, Pleasant, Shelby, Galion to be in the mix. Win 2 of those and I like their chances. Don't think it will happen. 6-4 at best. Norton 1-2; Don't know them well. Schedule doesn't look tough. Can they win the close games they need to. Probably peg them as a 6-4 team. Slim: Copley 1-2- Would need to upset Barberton and Revere in order to get to 7-3. They look like a 5-5 team.
No Chance: Shaw 1-2 Lexington 1-2 BG 1-2 Cloverleaf 1-2 0-3, Woodward, Ashland, Defiance, Maumee, Madison, East Tech, John Hay, Lincoln West
I'll predict. 1.Mansfield 9-1 2. Sandusky 8-2 3. Tiffin 8-2 4. Revere 8-2 5. Norwalk 7-3 6. Holy Name 7-3 7. Medina Buckeye 7-3 8. Glenville 7-3
Bay, Rocky River, West Holmes on the outside looking in.
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Post by redskinfan04 on Sept 14, 2019 21:46:13 GMT -5
It’s week 3...
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 14, 2019 22:09:26 GMT -5
even so, I can appreciate the effort someone puts in for discussion.
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Post by bigwill on Sept 15, 2019 6:24:37 GMT -5
Maybe too early to predict the seeding, but not too early to say that those teams are probably all looking at a playoff berth if they handle their business I agree.
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Post by kingmartinez on Sept 15, 2019 8:44:01 GMT -5
Just a fan being a fan...good clean fun. Nothing wrong with that. Keep on March Madness!
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Post by CrazyFast1 on Sept 16, 2019 9:18:28 GMT -5
Found this interesting, we'll see if the magic eight ball is correct.
These are mathematical projections of the computer points for 2019 based on the previous four seasons (2015-2018). These are based solely on past results, and calculated from a combination of three factors which have proven to be accurate predictors of future success: Direction the program is heading, Average results of last four year, and Last season's results.
In 2018, 58% of all playoff teams came from the top eight in these projections, while 72% came from Likely Playoff Teams (those team projected to finish with 20% of the eighth place team in the projections. This breaks down as follows: D3: Region 10. 47% from Top 8; 66% from Most Likely
1 Medina Buckeye 24.3750 2 Bay Village Bay 23.4625 3 Sandusky 19.9417 4 Cleveland Glenville 19.6960 5 Tiffin Columbian 17.2417 6 Norwalk 16.8029 7 Millersburg West Holmes 16.491 8 Richfield Revere 15.9208 9 Bowling Green 15.8083 10 Norton 15.7833 11 Rocky River 14.1902 12 Lexington 13.7458
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 16, 2019 10:57:13 GMT -5
Where's Mansfield Senior in all this? I'm sorry, Glenville has very little shot.
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Post by scout15 on Sept 16, 2019 11:46:56 GMT -5
Glenville currently has a 46% chance if they go 7-3. As someone mentioned, it’s only week 3 so those odds will continuously change.
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Post by CrazyFast1 on Sept 16, 2019 12:07:50 GMT -5
Where's Mansfield Senior in all this? I'm sorry, Glenville has very little shot. #13 Mansfield Senior 12.4407 #14 Ashland 12.1750
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Post by CrazyFast1 on Sept 16, 2019 12:21:36 GMT -5
Here's how the magic eight ball is predicting Division 4 Region 14. I asked Alexa too but she did not know that one.
Predicted Forecast for Finish 2019
1 Bellville Clear Fork 29.0750 2 Clyde 24.2167 3 Lorain Clearview 18.3695 4 Van Wert 17.4792 5 Bellevue 16.1944 6 Bryan 16.1329 7 Shelby 15.6219 8 Huron 15.5016 9 Port Clinton 13.9269 10 Galion 11.3605 11 Napoleon 11.3583 12 Ottawa-Glandorf 10.4644 13 Milan Edison 9.4875
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marchmadness
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Post by marchmadness on Sept 16, 2019 12:52:19 GMT -5
Drew Pastuer updated his information today. This is much better, more realistic projections from him now.
1. Sandusky (8-2) 24.35 2. Medina Buckeye (8-2) 22.40 3. Tiffin Columbian (8-2) 20.45 4. Mansfield (8-2) 20.10 (Top 4 earn a first round home game) 5. Bay Village Bay (7-3) 19.75 6. Norwalk (6-4) 18.70 7. Richfield Revere (6-4) 18.15 8. Cleveland Glenville (7-3) 15.60 (Top 8 earn a playoff berth) 9. Parma Heights Holy Name (6-4) 13.60 10. Caledonia River Valley (6-4) 13.05 11. Rocky River (6-4) 12.35
Obviously, its very early. We all get that Redskinfan! But as you can see, Glenville will likely be a 7 or 8 seed which will make for a very interesting match up for Mansfield, Sandusky, Tiffin or whoever gets the 1/2.
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berg19
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Post by berg19 on Sept 16, 2019 13:14:09 GMT -5
From joeeitel.com Top 8 teams following week 10 qualify for playoffs Current Rank W-L ID # Mailing City School Current Average Level 1 Level 2 L2 divisor Last Year Qualified 1 3-0 1394 Sandusky Sandusky 7.2000 18.0 12.0 100 2018 2 3-0 940 Mansfield Mansfield 6.8333 17.5 10.0 100 2017 3 3-0 406 Tiffin Columbian 6.4833 17.5 6.5 100 2018 4 2-1 1288 Richfield Revere 6.1333 11.5 23.0 100 2005 5 3-0 1314 Caledonia River Valley 5.5667 15.5 4.0 100 2016 6 2-1 168 Bay Village Bay 5.1667 9.5 20.0 100 2018 7 2-1 276 Medina Buckeye 5.1167 11.0 14.5 100 2018 8 2-1 1160 Norwalk Norwalk 4.3333 10.0 10.0 100 2018 9 2-1 1320 Rocky River Rocky River 4.1000 10.5 6.0 100 2018 10 2-1 1324 Toledo Rogers 3.8333 10.0 5.0 100 2009 11 2-1 728 Parma Heights Holy Name 3.6667 11.0 0.0 100 2016 12 2-1 1410 East Cleveland Shaw 3.3333 10.0 0.0 100 2011 13 1-2 856 Lexington Lexington 2.5667 5.0 9.0 100 2018 14 1-2 1680 Millersburg West Holmes 2.5167 5.0 8.5 100 2018 15 1-2 422 Copley Copley 2.0000 6.0 0.0 100 2016 16 1-2 242 Bowling Green Bowling Green 1.8333 5.5 0.0 100 2018 17 1-2 390 Lodi Cloverleaf 1.6667 5.0 0.0 100 2008 18 1-2 1158 Norton Norton 1.5000 4.5 0.0 100 1997 19t 0-3 138 Ashland Ashland 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2017 19t 0-3 464 Defiance Defiance 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2013 19t 0-3 506 Cleveland East Technical 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 None 19t 0-3 652 Cleveland Glenville 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2017 19t 0-3 790 Cleveland John Hay 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2013 19t 0-3 880 Cleveland Lincoln West 0.0000 0.0 0.0 99 None 19t 0-3 926 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2014 19t 0-3 976 Maumee Maumee 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2010 19t 0-3 1734 Toledo Woodward 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 None Disclaimer: These ratings are provided for informational purposes only. These
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Post by Merton on Sept 17, 2019 12:01:02 GMT -5
even so, I can appreciate the effort someone puts in for discussion. It's ALREADY week 3! There, I fixed it for you.
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Post by malabar10 on Sept 18, 2019 7:27:47 GMT -5
So week 5 will be very interesting as #1 Sandusky is at #2 Mansfield Senior!
Also, Pasteur has Senior losing to Norwalk for their projected 8-2 record. I guess that point is moot!!
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Post by bigwill on Sept 18, 2019 8:56:18 GMT -5
I think we’ll have a pretty clear picture of the Region by week 8. Sandusky plays Mansfield, Tiffin, and Norwalk in weeks 5, 6, and 7. Norwalk and Tiffin in week 10 could determine a home playoff berth. All very exciting.
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 18, 2019 11:09:51 GMT -5
I think we’ll have a pretty clear picture of the Region by week 8. Sandusky plays Mansfield, Tiffin, and Norwalk in weeks 5, 6, and 7. Norwalk and Tiffin in week 10 could determine a home playoff berth. All very exciting. Essentially, for these schools, the playoffs start early.
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marchmadness
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Post by marchmadness on Sept 18, 2019 12:35:30 GMT -5
So week 5 will be very interesting as #1 Sandusky is at #2 Mansfield Senior! Also, Pasteur has Senior losing to Norwalk for their projected 8-2 record. I guess that point is moot!! That's not how his projections work.
You can be favored in all the games and still be projected to be 9-1 or 8-2. If you are favorites by 3-5 points in 3 games, it is very likely that you could lose 1 or more of them (margin or error, I guess). I don't know the statistics terms but that's why he has them at 8-2. He/his computesr thinks they will get upset once in addition to losing to Sandusky.
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John
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Post by John on Sept 23, 2019 7:52:54 GMT -5
Norwalk is sitting 6 one more loss and its probably lights out.You gotta beat a stacked Sandusky team a stacked tiffin team and dont forget Bellevue who should have won last year than clyde who is Clyde.Preasure is on.I think losing rayford will hurt,cant replace 10 yards a carry.You cant
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John
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Post by John on Sept 23, 2019 7:53:29 GMT -5
Good luck area teams.
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Post by bigwill on Sept 23, 2019 8:09:05 GMT -5
A team like Norwalk has a lot of points left to gain. Another loss in a Lake dominated Region 10 isn’t cause for a death knell, but 2 is probably too much to overcome. I can see Tiffin, Sandusky, and Norwalk all losing once in Lake play and still make the playoffs
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mcm1019
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Post by mcm1019 on Sept 23, 2019 8:10:01 GMT -5
Norwalk is sitting 6 one more loss and its probably lights out.You gotta beat a stacked Sandusky team a stacked tiffin team and dont forget Bellevue who should have won last year than clyde who is Clyde.Preasure is on.I think losing rayford will hurt,cant replace 10 yards a carry.You cant Stumpf has 86 carries for 779 yds...9.05 yds per carry...just saying.
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Post by dude on Sept 23, 2019 8:10:17 GMT -5
By seasons end, these schools that play bad teams early and start will undefeated will get hurt late. I have always thought going 2-1 against good teams can be better than going 3-0 against bad ones. I have never done the math but can a team going 1-2 against teams that finish 7-3 turn out better than going 3-0 against teams that go 0-10 or 1-9?
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marchmadness
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Post by marchmadness on Sept 23, 2019 9:35:26 GMT -5
Norwalk is sitting 6 one more loss and its probably lights out.You gotta beat a stacked Sandusky team a stacked tiffin team and dont forget Bellevue who should have won last year than clyde who is Clyde.Preasure is on.I think losing rayford will hurt,cant replace 10 yards a carry.You cant You don't have a clue to this region. One more loss will get them a home game, not lights out. 7-3 will get them in. 6-4 could get them in. Who is Rayford? If you are talking about last years running back, Raymore(?), running back is the least of Norwalk's worries from what I have seen/heard.
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berg19
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Post by berg19 on Sept 23, 2019 9:46:08 GMT -5
After Week 4 joeeitel .com
1 3-1 168 Bay Village Bay 8.0750 15.5 42.0 100 2018 2 4-0 940 Mansfield Mansfield 7.7500 23.0 20.0 100 2017 3 3-1 1288 Richfield Revere 7.6000 17.0 33.5 100 2005 4 4-0 1394 Sandusky Sandusky 7.0750 23.5 12.0 100 2018 5 3-1 276 Medina Buckeye 7.0250 15.5 31.5 100 2018 6 3-1 1160 Norwalk Norwalk 6.9000 15.0 31.5 100 2018 7 4-0 406 Tiffin Columbian 6.6500 24.0 6.5 100 2018 8 3-1 728 Parma Heights Holy Name 5.1750 16.5 10.5 100 2016 9 3-1 1314 Caledonia River Valley 4.2750 15.5 4.0 100 2016 10 3-1 1324 Toledo Rogers 4.0051 14.0 5.0 99 2009 11 2-2 1320 Rocky River Rocky River 3.8250 10.5 12.0 100 2018 12 2-2 242 Bowling Green Bowling Green 2.7500 11.0 0.0 100 2018 13 2-2 1410 East Cleveland Shaw 2.5000 10.0 0.0 100 2011 14t 1-3 390 Lodi Cloverleaf 2.1500 5.0 9.0 100 2008 14t 1-3 856 Lexington Lexington 2.1500 5.0 9.0 100 2018 16 1-3 1680 Millersburg West Holmes 2.1000 5.0 8.5 100 2018 17 1-3 1158 Norton Norton 1.5750 4.5 4.5 100 1997 18 1-3 422 Copley Copley 1.5000 6.0 0.0 100 2016 19 1-3 652 Cleveland Glenville 1.2500 5.0 0.0 100 2017 20t 0-4 138 Ashland Ashland 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2017 20t 0-4 464 Defiance Defiance 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2013 20t 0-4 506 Cleveland East Technical 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 None 20t 0-4 790 Cleveland John Hay 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2013 20t 0-4 880 Cleveland Lincoln West 0.0000 0.0 0.0 99 None 20t 0-4 926 Mansfield Madison Comprehensive 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2014 20t 0-4 976 Maumee Maumee 0.0000 0.0 0.0 100 2010 20t 0-4 1734 Toledo Woodward
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berg19
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Post by berg19 on Sept 23, 2019 9:49:28 GMT -5
If Manfield and Norwalk keep winning in it helps Norwalk because even though they lost for points sake its a good loss, This Manfield/ Sandusky game should be interesting. Since its at Mansfield we will see home much the Officials play into the game like they did in the Norwalk /Mansfield game.
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Post by dude on Sept 23, 2019 10:13:15 GMT -5
If Manfield and Norwalk keep winning in it helps Norwalk because even though they lost for points sake its a good loss, This Manfield/ Sandusky game should be interesting. Since its at Mansfield we will see home much the Officials play into the game like they did in the Norwalk /Mansfield game. You do know that schools do not schedule their own officials anymore. There is just as good of a chance that the crew is from Sandusky as from the Dover area. There is almost no chance they are coming from the Mansfield area.
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berg19
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Post by berg19 on Sept 23, 2019 10:38:29 GMT -5
If Manfield and Norwalk keep winning in it helps Norwalk because even though they lost for points sake its a good loss, This Manfield/ Sandusky game should be interesting. Since its at Mansfield we will see home much the Officials play into the game like they did in the Norwalk /Mansfield game. You do know that schools do not schedule their own officials anymore. There is just as good of a chance that the crew is from Sandusky as from the Dover area. There is almost no chance they are coming from the Mansfield area. Yes I know but if you were at the game you would see how one sided it was , especially how they treated each sideline, Mansfields coaches were constantly on the field and we get a sideline penalty for have the coaches toe over the line , come on now, and almost every big play we had was called back. I know how they are assigned , I personally have experience with the assigning process works but, Manfield played a perfect game and Norwalk didn't , but if they meet at a neutral field it could be different. Technical in plus or minus the Norwalk D was only -7, gave up 2 but also took back 1. Offence is getting better so I would like to see them meet in the play offs.
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Post by redskinfan04 on Sept 23, 2019 11:14:38 GMT -5
You do know that schools do not schedule their own officials anymore. There is just as good of a chance that the crew is from Sandusky as from the Dover area. There is almost no chance they are coming from the Mansfield area. Yes I know but if you were at the game you would see how one sided it was , especially how they treated each sideline, Mansfields coaches were constantly on the field and we get a sideline penalty for have the coaches toe over the line , come on now, and almost every big play we had was called back. I know how they are assigned , I personally have experience with the assigning process works but, Manfield played a perfect game and Norwalk didn't , but if they meet at a neutral field it could be different. Technical in plus or minus the Norwalk D was only -7, gave up 2 but also took back 1. Offence is getting better so I would like to see them meet in the play offs. It’s perfectly legal for a coach to be on the field so long as he stays between the sideline and the numbers. I’ve never seen a coach get flagged for this that wasn’t warned to stay back atleast once. Ref’s don’t like calling this because you punish the kids for the adults mistakes. Norwalk has been flag prone this year and that kind of undisciplined play has unseen consequences. Norwalk shouldn’t be expecting to get away with many 50/50 calls this year.
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Post by dude on Sept 23, 2019 11:26:50 GMT -5
A neutral field would not matter for the officials since they are not assigned by the home field team. I did not see the game but I did see the stats.
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Post by sportsfan15 on Sept 23, 2019 12:26:46 GMT -5
If Manfield and Norwalk keep winning in it helps Norwalk because even though they lost for points sake its a good loss, This Manfield/ Sandusky game should be interesting. Since its at Mansfield we will see home much the Officials play into the game like they did in the Norwalk /Mansfield game. You clearly have only attended that one game at Arlin field... over the years I have attended several games there and I have never left their with the feeling that Senior has any advantage from refs... actually left there feeling the exact opposite. I was at the Norwalk game and felt that it was actually called well, just a bad night of execution for Norwalk, especially on the O-line.
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