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Post by Admin on Dec 8, 2019 5:25:34 GMT -5
Here are 2 different versions of my Ratings. The Classic version that you would have seen in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 And the one I created last year that analyzes how teams do in real life against the spreads my rankings have for them and adjusts their rating up or down. So if they are 7 pt favorites but continuously win by 21 they are better than my ratings are giving them credit for so they are adjusted up. Both ratings did about the same last year during bowl season. I'll analyze them again over the next couple years to see if one is better at predicting winners than the other.
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| New Style
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| Classic
| 1
| 111.18
| 13
| 0
| Ohio State
| 1
| 109.18
| 13
| 0
| Ohio State
| 2
| 97.67
| 13
| 0
| Clemson
| 2
| 98.49
| 13
| 0
| LSU
| 3
| 97.49
| 13
| 0
| LSU
| 3
| 93.67
| 13
| 0
| Clemson
| 4
| 90.23
| 10
| 2
| Florida
| 4
| 93.15
| 11
| 2
| Georgia
| 5
| 90.15
| 11
| 2
| Georgia
| 5
| 91.75
| 10
| 3
| Wisconsin
| 6
| 89.75
| 10
| 3
| Wisconsin
| 6
| 90.76
| 9
| 3
| Auburn
| 7
| 88.49
| 10
| 2
| Penn State
| 7
| 88.49
| 10
| 2
| Penn State
| 8
| 87.76
| 9
| 3
| Auburn
| 8
| 88.48
| 9
| 3
| Michigan
| 9
| 87.48
| 9
| 3
| Michigan
| 9
| 88.23
| 10
| 2
| Florida
| 10
| 87.07
| 11
| 2
| Oregon
| 10
| 88.12
| 12
| 1
| Memphis
| 11
| 86.36
| 10
| 2
| Notre Dame
| 11
| 88.07
| 11
| 2
| Oregon
| 12
| 86.12
| 12
| 1
| Memphis
| 12
| 87.36
| 10
| 2
| Notre Dame
| 13
| 85.66
| 10
| 2
| Alabama
| 13
| 85.11
| 12
| 1
| Oklahoma
| 14
| 84.24
| 11
| 2
| Utah
| 14
| 84.66
| 10
| 2
| Alabama
| 15
| 82.11
| 12
| 1
| Oklahoma
| 15
| 84.24
| 11
| 2
| Utah
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The #1 seed looks to be important according to my rankings because Oklahoma isn't in the class of OSU, LSU and Clemson. ESPN FPI 1
| 33.8
| 13
| 0
| Ohio State
| 2
| 32.0
| 13
| 0
| Clemson
| 3
| 28.9
| 13
| 0
| LSU
| 4
| 28.7
| 10
| 2
| Alabama
| 5
| 23.7
| 11
| 2
| Georgia
| 6
| 22.0
| 9
| 3
| Auburn
| 7
| 21.9
| 11
| 2
| Oregon
| 8
| 21.8
| 10
| 2
| Florida
| 9
| 21.4
| 12
| 1
| Oklahoma
| 10
| 21.3
| 10
| 3
| Wisconsin
| 11
| 21.2
| 10
| 2
| Penn State
| 12
| 20.5
| 9
| 3
| Michigan
| 13
| 19.8
| 10
| 2
| Notre Dame
| 14
| 19.7
| 11
| 2
| Utah
| 15
| 14.5
| 11
| 2
| Baylor
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Post by Admin on Dec 8, 2019 5:30:10 GMT -5
Sagarin Ratings were not updated yet. I'll post them later when he updates it.
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Post by ronburgandy on Dec 8, 2019 9:20:17 GMT -5
Gotta admit Clemson is looking pretty good. I know the competition they are playing but they’re killing teams. The national title comes down to OSU, Clemson, or LSU.
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Post by Buckeye2b on Dec 8, 2019 11:11:00 GMT -5
I can’t help but consider the psychological aspect of this entire thing. Ohio State believed yesterday after winning the Big Ten, that they should be ranked the number one team in the nation. Just think if they’re ranked number two or number three, the chip on their shoulder that they will play with… I am kind of hoping that they come in two or three in the rankings for just that reason.
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Post by Admin on Dec 8, 2019 11:45:23 GMT -5
Sagarin Ratings 1
| 106.54
| 13
| 0
| Ohio State
| 2
| 101.09
| 13
| 0
| Clemson
| 3
| 100.81
| 13
| 0
| LSU
| 4
| 96.96
| 10
| 2
| Alabama
| 5
| 94.28
| 12
| 1
| Oklahoma
| 6
| 92.93
| 11
| 2
| Georgia
| 7
| 92.69
| 10
| 3
| Wisconsin
| 8
| 92.37
| 11
| 2
| Oregon
| 9
| 91.03
| 9
| 3
| Michigan
| 10
| 90.94
| 9
| 3
| Auburn
| 11
| 90.51
| 10
| 2
| Penn State
| 12
| 90.37
| 10
| 2
| Florida
| 13
| 89.27
| 10
| 2
| Notre Dame
| 14
| 88.23
| 11
| 2
| Utah
| 15
| 87.07
| 11
| 2
| Baylor
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Average of 33 computers from Massey.com (it grows to over 100 as the computers come in) 1
| 13
| 0
| Ohio State
| 2
| 13
| 0
| LSU
| 3
| 13
| 0
| Clemson
| 4
| 11
| 2
| Georgia
| 5
| 12
| 1
| Oklahoma
| 6
| 11
| 2
| Oregon
| 7
| 10
| 3
| Wisconsin
| 8
| 10
| 2
| Penn State
| 9
| 10
| 2
| Florida
| 10
| 10
| 2
| Alabama
| 11
| 10
| 2
| Notre Dame
| 12
| 11
| 2
| Utah
| 13
| 9
| 3
| Auburn
| 14
| 12
| 1
| Memphis
| 15
| 9
| 3
| Michigan
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Dec 8, 2019 14:26:07 GMT -5
I can’t help but consider the psychological aspect of this entire thing. Ohio State believed yesterday after winning the Big Ten, that they should be ranked the number one team in the nation. Just think if they’re ranked number two or number three, the chip on their shoulder that they will play with… I am kind of hoping that they come in two or three in the rankings for just that reason. Ohio State didn't want it bad enough in the first half. If they'd scored 27 in BOTH halves and held Wisconsin to 14, they likely would have been seeded #1. |
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Post by DrTorch on Dec 8, 2019 15:24:58 GMT -5
I have no problem with either OSU, LSU, or CLEM #1 honestly, everybody can make a case.
I am glad we got Clemson in the semis and in the dessert because we won't be caught looking ahead, this is a Dynasty type Big game, both for what Clemson has done to us on the field and for what they have done to us on the recruiting trail...this game has huuuuge and all encompassing implications for both the winner and the loser
I also think anytime you make the playoff that is a successful season, now whatever happens happens. Just go down swinging and put up a fight.
I have seen LSU a lot this year and they look unstoppable on offense. I see the CLEM box score and every week since the UNC scare they have just HOUSED fools, it is like 42-7 every week, cept this week, then they scored 62. Lawrence is healthy and has been lights out the last 6 weeks. Beating either LSU or CLEM or even OKL (we haven't exactly looked great against run-first QBs like Hurts) is going to take a titanic effort.
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Post by buckeyekid on Dec 8, 2019 17:08:08 GMT -5
I wouldn't want to play Clemson next Saturday.
I would like to play Clemson in 3 weeks once some of our players have a chance to mend a little bit.
Guys like Fields, Okudah, Wade, Arnette, Browning, Wyatt Davis,,these guys have been dinged up and it does make a difference when they are healthy.
I think we'll be healthy and at the top of our game for Clemson.
I also think Clemson hasn't played a team remotely as good as OSU. Meanwhile OSU is battle tested .
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Post by Admin on Dec 9, 2019 10:21:08 GMT -5
The following are Vogel Rankings for all 13 of Clemson's opponents, from highest ranked to lowest
69.07 (7-5) Texas A&M - 14 pt win
66.96 (9-4) Virginia - 45 pt win
67.71 (6-6) UNC - 1 pt win
62.56 (6-6) Florida St - 31 pt win
62.54 (7-5) Louisville - 35 pt win
62.48 (8-4) Wake Forest - 49 pt win
61.62 (4-8) South Carolina - 35 pt win
58.00 (8-4) Wofford - 45 pt win
55.11 (6-6) Boston College - 52 pt win
51.99 (5-7) Syracuse - 35 pt win
51.45 (7-5) UNC Charlotte - 42 pt win
44.33 (3-9) Georgia Tech - 38 pt win
42.59 (4-8) NC State - 45 pt win
Ohio State ranks in at 111.18 (42 pts better than the best team Clemson has played so far)
Ohio State's 13 opponents ranked from highest to lowest using the Vogel Rankings
89.75 (10-3) Wisconsin - 13 pt win
89.75 (10-3) Wisconsin - 31 pt win
88.49 (10-2) Penn State - 11 pt win
87.48 (9-3) Michigan - 29 pt win
76.34 (10-3) Cincinnati - 42 pt win
69.37 (10-3) Florida Atlantic - 24 pt win
67.82 (6-6) Michigan State - 24 pt win
67.10 (8-4) Indiana - 42 pt win
62.56 (5-7) Nebraska - 41 pt win
56.59 (8-5) Miami, OH - 71 pt win
52.72 (3-9) Northwestern - 49 pt win
46.73 (3-9) Maryland - 59 pt win
38.90 (2-10) Rutgers - 35 pt win
Clemson ranks in at 97.67 (8 pts better tahn the best team Ohio St has played so far)
Ohio St has been much more challenged than Clemson. Clemson has played a bunch of MSU, Nebraska, Indiana types. Hopefully Wisconsin, PSU and Michigan have gotten Ohio State prepared.
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Post by Admin on Dec 9, 2019 10:34:20 GMT -5
The other 2 teams in
Oklahoma
73.98 (11-2) Baylor - ot win
73.98 (11-2) Baylor - 3 pt win
69.99 (7-5) Texas - 7 pt win
69.18 (8-4) K-State - LOST by 7
68.95 (8-4) Ok State - 18 pt win
68.58 (7-5) Iowa St - 1 pt win
58.86 (5-7) TCU - 4 pt win
53.26 (4-8) Houston - 18 pt win
52.98 (5-7) West Virginia - 38 pt win
51.80 (4-8) Texas Tech - 39 pt win
51.72 (4-8) UCLA - 34 pt win
43.00 (5-7) South Dakota - 56 pt win
37.40 (3-9) Kansas - 25 pt win
LSU
90.23 (10-2) Florida - 14 pt win
90.15 (11-2) Georgia - 27 pt win
87.76 (9-3) Auburn - 3 pt win
85.66 (10-2) Alabama - 5 pt win
69.99 (7-5) Texas - 7 pt win
69.07 (7-5) Texas A&M - 43 pt win
60.81 (6-6) Miss State - 23 pt win
58.90 (7-5) Utah State - 36 pt win
56.21 (7-5) Georgia Southern - 52 pt win
55.27 (4-8) Ole Miss - 21 pt win
43.15 (3-9) Vanderbilt - 28 pt win
39.88 (2-10) Arkansas - 36 pt win
33.00 (3-9) Northwestern State - 51 pt win
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