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Post by 419bossman on Sept 10, 2022 18:07:44 GMT -5
After four games here are the Unofficial Standings for the playoffs
1. Cleveland Glenville 2. Millersberg West Holmes 3. Bellevue 4. Van Wert 5. Elyria Catholic 6. Sandusky Perkins 7. Bellville Clear Fork 8. St. Mary's Memorial 9. Shelby 10. Galion 11. Caledonia River Valley 12. Wauseon 13. Napoleon 14. East Cleveland Shaw 15. Bryan 16. Upper Sandusky
Teams outside the cutoff 17. Delaware Buckeye Valley 18. Rossford 19. Bellefontaine Ben Logan 20. Kenton
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Post by 419bossman on Sept 17, 2022 23:19:59 GMT -5
DIV Region 14 Rankings after Week 5 1 5-0 Cleveland Glenville 2 5-0 Millersburg West Holmes 3 4-1 Van Wert 4 4-1 Sandusky Perkins 5 4-1 Bellevue 6 4-1 Bellville Clear Fork 7 4-1 Elyria Catholic 8 3-2 St Marys Memorial 9 4-1 Shelby 10 3-2 Caledonia River Valley 11 3-2 Wauseon 12 2-3 Delaware Buckeye Valley 13 2-3 Upper Sandusky 14 2-3 Galion 15 1-4 Napoleon 16 2-3 Rossford
Teams below the cutoff 17 2-3 East Cleveland Shaw 18 2-3 Bryan 19 1-4 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan 20 1-4 Kenton
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Post by richrod on Sept 19, 2022 7:52:08 GMT -5
This is really IMO a 3 team race to win it maybe only two teams and those are Van Wert, Glenville, and WH.
The SBC Lake is young outside of Tiffin and Perkins I am told and I watched Perkins scrimmage Shelby and DeSales and watched Shelby and Bellevue. Bellevue is solid and would be my next choice as a contender to win this region.
Shelby is improving but I do not think they would hang with WH, Glenville, or VW at this point. I wouldn't mind seeing a Bellevue/Shelby rematch though or seeing Shelby and Perkins play again.
CF is a wild card along with Elyria Catholic.
St. Mary's is always solid but I just think WH and Glenville along with VW are just a bit above everyone else right now. Plus, the Lake teams in Perkins and Bellevue will have to slug it out the next 5 weeks and will need to stay healthy.
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Post by sportsfan15 on Sept 19, 2022 11:54:50 GMT -5
I think you are correct. Those 3 appear to be above the rest of the field. CF showed they have the ability to play balanced last Friday and shared the ball to their 3 best playmakers IMO. If Carroll continues to spread the ball and their QB takes care of it, they should be able to have a good season and potential run. However, that is a big IF.
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Post by 419bossman on Sept 19, 2022 13:16:58 GMT -5
I was looking at the schedules for each team and it looks like the 16 that currently in will probably be the 16 that will make the playoffs. I really only seeing Bryan as one team that could sneak in if they can get some keys wins over the next few weeks
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Post by baldref on Sept 19, 2022 18:41:05 GMT -5
I was looking at the schedules for each team and it looks like the 16 that currently in will probably be the 16 that will make the playoffs. I really only seeing Bryan as one team that could sneak in if they can get some keys wins over the next few weeks looking ahead, agree with this. Also doubt if current positions will change much by seasons end IMO
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Post by smitty1974 on Sept 19, 2022 23:08:27 GMT -5
baldref,i hate to disagree with you on bryan(2-3) but bryan has beaten maumee and fairiew both 0-5 and their losses to 4-1 teams in van wert,archbold and delta.the next 2 weeks bryan has are at home with patrick henry(4-1)and liberty center(5-0) and wont come close to either of them.then bryan on the road for evergreen(2-3) and swanton(1-4) then home for wauseon(3-2) and they should lose to wauseon. i dont see bryan making it or pulling any upsets.
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Post by 419bossman on Sept 20, 2022 18:14:06 GMT -5
Smitty1974, I know it probably won't happen but I was just saying that Bryan would probably be the only team that had a chance because of the teams they still have to play. The biggest thing the lower half teams just don't want to be the bottom three
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Post by 419bossman on Sept 24, 2022 21:28:32 GMT -5
Rankings after Week 6
1 6-0 Cleveland Glenville 2 6-0 Millersburg West Holmes 3 5-1 Sandusky Perkins 4 5-1 Van Wert 5 5-1 Bellville Clear Fork 6 5-1 Elyria Catholic 7 5-1 Bellevue 8 4-2 St Marys Memorial 9 4-2 Caledonia River Valley 10 3-3 Galion 11 4-2 Wauseon 12 4-2 Shelby 13 3-3 Delaware Buckeye Valley 14 3-3 Bryan 15 2-4 Napoleon 16 2-4 Upper Sandusky
Teams below the cutline 17 2-4 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan 18 2-4 Rossford 19 2-4 East Cleveland Shaw 20 1-5 Kenton
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Post by 419bossman on Sept 25, 2022 12:53:05 GMT -5
Remaining Games
Clear Fork- Pleasant, Harding, Shelby, Highland
River Valley- Harding, Shelby, Highland, Galion
Galion- Ontario, Highland, Pleasant, River Valley
Shelby- Highland, River Valley, Clear Fork, Ontario
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Post by 419bossman on Oct 1, 2022 20:54:00 GMT -5
nkings after Week 7
1 7-0 Cleveland Glenville 2 6-1 Sandusky Perkins 3 7-0 Millersburg West Holmes 4 6-1 Van Wert 5 6-1 Elyria Catholic 6 6-1 Bellville Clear Fork 7 5-2 Bellevue 8 5-2 St Marys St Marys Memorial 9 4-3 Galion 10 5-2 Wauseon 11 5-2 Caledonia River Valley 12 4-3 Delaware Buckeye Valley 13 3-4 Upper Sandusky 14 3-4 Napoleon 15 4-3 Shelby 16 3-4 Bryan
Teams below the cutline 17 3-4 Rossford 18 2-5 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan 19 2-5 East Cleveland Shaw 20 1-6 Kenton
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Post by dude on Oct 3, 2022 10:54:33 GMT -5
Is Shelby on the edge of not making the playoffs? Looking at their remaining games they could go 1-2 and finish 5-5 on the season.
Galion's stock is rising but still have 2 tough games remaining.
Clear Fork looks to be closer to average and not as dominant as expected. Still a hosting seed in the playoffs.
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Post by ohioraised on Oct 3, 2022 11:46:09 GMT -5
Clear Fork has dealt with some set backs like most teams. They still are healthy enough and definitely talented enough to make a good showing in the playoffs.
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Post by 419bossman on Oct 3, 2022 15:53:07 GMT -5
I really think that teams in the top 11 are safe making the playoffs. I believe that six teams are going to fight it out for the last five spots. Lets look at the schedule for the these five teams.
Buckeye Valley- Logan(3-4), Whitehall-Yearling(4-3), Harvest Prep(7-0) Prediction- 2-1
Upper Sandusky- Buckeye Central(3-4), Carey(7-0), Wynford(2-5) Prediction- 2-1
Napoleon- Anthony Wayne(6-1), Southview(5-2), Bowling Green(2-5) Prediction- 1-2
Shelby- River Valley(5-2), Clear Fork(6-1), Ontario(3-4) Prediction- 1-2
Bryan- Evergreen(2-5), Swanton(1-6), Wauseon(5-2) Prediction- 2-1
Rossford- Eastwood(7-0), Lake(1-6), Elmwood(6-1) Prediction- 1-2
According to Drew Pasteur his projections have the current 16 making the playoff with Bryan beating out Rossford by 1 point. But anything can happen.
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Post by GHS 1999 on Oct 3, 2022 19:40:02 GMT -5
I think Shelby will make the playoffs as long as they beat Ontario. None of the top four will be much fun to play.
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Post by richrod on Oct 4, 2022 8:45:26 GMT -5
I think Shelby will make the playoffs as long as they beat Ontario. None of the top four will be much fun to play. Perkins is beatable. Watched them scrimmage Shelby, and they don't blow me away. They are doing well in a down year for the SBC Lake but haven't played tiffin yet.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2022 20:06:22 GMT -5
I think Shelby will make the playoffs as long as they beat Ontario. None of the top four will be much fun to play. Perkins is beatable. Watched them scrimmage Shelby, and they don't blow me away. They are doing well in a down year for the SBC Lake but haven't played tiffin yet. You’re basing your opinion on a scrimmage that was 2 months ago?
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Post by GHS 1999 on Oct 4, 2022 21:20:31 GMT -5
I stand behind what I said. Any team from the SBC Lake Division will be solid. Even behind Glenville, West Holmes, Perkins, and Van Wert the next several are really good also. I think Region 18 is deeper than 14, but 14 is too heavy for sure.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Oct 5, 2022 15:09:29 GMT -5
I think Shelby will make the playoffs as long as they beat Ontario. None of the top four will be much fun to play. Both schools could be battling for a playoff sport, but who really wants to be the umpteenth seed?
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Post by 419bossman on Oct 5, 2022 17:03:35 GMT -5
Do you think any of the current top 8 will drop below or will the top 8 be the same after week 10m
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Post by 419bossman on Oct 8, 2022 22:01:48 GMT -5
Rankings after Week 8
1 8-0 Cleveland Glenville clinched top 8 (home) 2 8-0 Millersburg West Holmes clinched top 8 (home) 3 7-1 Sandusky Perkins clinched top 8 (home) 4 7-1 Elyria Catholic clinched playoff spot 5 7-1 Van Wert clinched playoff spot 6 7-1 Bellville Clear Fork clinched playoff spot 7 6-2 St Marys Memorial clinched playoff spot 8 5-3 Bellevue clinched playoff spot 9 6-2 Wauseon 10 5-3 Delaware Buckeye Valley 11 4-4 Galion 12 5-3 Shelby 13 5-3 Caledonia River Valley 14 4-4 Upper Sandusky 15 3-5 Napoleon 16 4-4 Bryan
Teams below the cutline 17 3-5 Rossford 18 2-6 Bellefontaine Benjamin Logan 19 2-6 East Cleveland Shaw 20 1-7 Fostoria
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Post by buckeye33 on Oct 10, 2022 14:22:06 GMT -5
Little confused….Joe Eitel has top 8 teams in region as clinched playoff spot. Drew Pasteur has top 14 already in. Anyone know how this works? I would think ‘clinched playoff spot’ and ‘already in’ would be the same
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Post by 419bossman on Oct 10, 2022 16:48:56 GMT -5
Eitel's is more of what the current rankings are, while Drew is more of a prediction. Eitel does have many of the teams saying controls their own destiny. No matter what both are pretty good at what they do. If you look at the remaining schedules for the teams it's pretty safe that the current 16 will make it in. The only team that has a legitimate shot would be Rossford they would need to win the last two and get major help. After this week I would not be surprised if everyone in this region will clinched their spot
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Post by buckeye33 on Oct 10, 2022 19:11:59 GMT -5
Makes sense, thanks
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 10, 2022 20:01:34 GMT -5
Little confused….Joe Eitel has top 8 teams in region as clinched playoff spot. Drew Pasteur has top 14 already in. Anyone know how this works? I would think ‘clinched playoff spot’ and ‘already in’ would be the same I'll add a layer to the explanation provided above. Eitel's 'clinched' is based on the mathematical minimum harbin points a team could yield by the end of the year. If that minimum number is higher than other teams' maximum possible harbin points that could "knock" a team out of qualifying for the playoffs, then Eitel says you clinch. This is not rooted in likely outcomes, just theoretical maximums/minimums of Harbins for a team. DP's 'clinched' is more rooted in reality. Is it theoretically conceivable that #9 Wauseon loses their last two games while the perfect combination of everyone ranked beneath them knocks them out of the top 16? Sure. But to DP, so long as his 10,000 simulations for Wauseon show them making the playoffs in at least 9,900 of those simulations, he calls that a 'clinch.'
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Post by buckeye33 on Oct 12, 2022 6:51:49 GMT -5
So Eitel is ‘there’s a mathematical possibility the Jets could comeback from 13 down with less than 2 minutes to beat the Browns’, while Pasteur is the ‘Browns have won’
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Post by richrod on Oct 12, 2022 7:30:18 GMT -5
Perkins is beatable. Watched them scrimmage Shelby, and they don't blow me away. They are doing well in a down year for the SBC Lake but haven't played tiffin yet. You’re basing your opinion on a scrimmage that was 2 months ago? too bad they deleted their account, must have been a Perkins coach. But yes, that and how well they are faring against down league competition. Perkins is the most beatable top 4 team in the region. Van Wert, Glenville, and WH are far better teams and have shown it in dominating opponenets, I mean, Glenville doing what they did in the non league portion to me is huge. The only issue I could see is that have had little resistence in the Senate league and would that affect them in the playoffs. With the talent they have, I would say no not early at least. Maybe if the talent level is close it could.
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 12, 2022 7:56:17 GMT -5
So Eitel is ‘there’s a mathematical possibility the Jets could comeback from 13 down with less than 2 minutes to beat the Browns’, while Pasteur is the ‘Browns have won’ ...yes. Actually, exactly that, so to speak. That analogy makes the entire thing sound way more flimsy, no arguing that. I suppose it's much easier for Pasteur to stake his claims when he needs an entire set of games to go sideways as opposed to the final 2 minutes of one singular game. For Wauseon to achieve their minimal possible Harbin points and to miss playoffs they need: - to finish the season 0-2 - all of their six beaten opponents to go 3-9 (impossible to not win some games since there are common opponents, and also need strategic wins of the big schools over smaller schools to minimize Harbins, such as D5 Delta beating D7 Patrick Henry instead of the other way around) - Current #17 Rossford to go 2-0, as well as having their beaten opponents like 1-7 Woodmore sweep 5-3 Otsego and 5-3 Genoa - Upper Sandusky has to beat 8-0 Carey - 2-6 Cleveland Shaw beating 7-1 Gilmour Academy and 2-6 Lorain - And a bunch of other random stuff Even if we are only dealing with Week 10 outcomes, there are still a wide range of events that must happen that make a 99.9% chance more insurmountable as compared to the Browns doing a Browns.
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 12, 2022 8:05:10 GMT -5
Since I'm going on about win expectancies and such, I want to address all the ESPN/FOX analytics that suggest a team has a "99%" chance of winning. I know other websites like Baseball-Reference, Football-Reference, Basketball-Reference, etc. do the same thing.
Those models have a lot of their methodologies published. It's a slog, but I read the stuff.
When ESPN says the Browns had a 99.9% chance of beating the Jets with 2:09 left in Q4, it is technically not rooted in the same 10,000 simulations method that Pasteur would employ.
They literally look at all other games *ever* in which a team has had a certain lead with/without possession at a certain timeframe in the game at a certain yardage range...and they come up with a % of how often said team won or lost from that point onwards. Besides potential pre-game ELO-style ratings, there is no insight into any of the players on the field that day. Those models don't focus on in-game settings and do 10,000 simulations of that. Rest assured, none these sports analytics do not have the ability to discern in-game offensive/defensive schemes as a game is occurring (not even before the game, technically, somewhat). They look at stated, actual real-life outcomes. If that method suggests a team in the Browns' position against the Jets has never lost, they bump it to 99.9% to cover their rears.
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 12, 2022 8:18:02 GMT -5
Truly, if any of these FiveThirtyEights, ESPNs, baseball-reference's, etc. ACTUALLY had game specific knowledge in their predictions as opposed to broad ELO ratings' methodologies, they would be a benchmark for sports bettors to gain an edge. This is not the case for a reason.
I have built a baseball model that out-ranks FiveThirtyEight's MLB prediction model, usually by about 1.5%. They would get 56-57%, I would get 58-59%. I am working on a new model that could stretch to 60%, so I hope. It's technically the 6th version of my baseball modeling work.
Rough drafts of my in-development baseball model says that there is a 0.001% chance that, with bases empty and no outs and a batter hits a double, he gets thrown out at 3rd while trying to stretch the play.
That does not even include the percent chance a batter has of hitting a double in the first place (under 7%). Let alone in a given ballpark (lefties hit 4% more doubles in Cleveland, righties hit 1% fewer), given a certain luck threshold that year (BABIP is the stat here), and against a given pitcher who is lefty/righty and is awful, bad, average, good, or fantastic.
Quite simply, this level of detail is not present in any of the ESPN, FiveThirtyEight, baseball-reference models...
I have researched baseball statistics, publications, etc. ad nauseum. I read Bill James' research papers, I read a PhD paper at Princeton based on baseball modeling, I read a lot of how models do their predictions. They fall short of what I am currently working on, which is provable based on how I have had to create most of my framework from scratch. Baseball nerds are the best in the business because they usually publish EVERYTHING they come up with. They have not published anything with the detail I am creating (it helps that I have a $2400 computer with hardware that is only one-generation behind all the stuff that came onto the market as of 2020-2021). Bill James and Princeton certainly fall short of certain concepts I'm pushing. They inspire a lot of good ideas, don't get me wrong. But if I can't even get everything I want in baseball, the easiest statistical sport to crunch, then it sure as heck doesn't exist for the NFL, NBA, NHL, etc.
I think most sports analytics are informative in a net positive way, but the ones that are public are public because they are not good enough to monetize/create a competitive advantage from. If a model was actually capable, a team or casino is going to buy that up and use it for their own motives.
Kenpom in college basketball comes to mind. His model, given that it is entirely math-based, is not bad. It does a good job of ballparking how good/bad a team is compared to others. Why didn't Ken Pomeroy keep the thing to himself and bet on games and make a killing? Well. It isn't good enough to outstrip the commission (vigorish) a casino takes when offering sports bets.
Haralabos Voulgaris is a pro sports bettor who cracked a lot of the NBA betting world wide open in the 90s. Dude made a lot of money. The Dallas Mavericks hired him in 2018 as their Director of Quantitative Research & Development. Anyone with an insight/edge on a major degree gets scooped up. Capitalism, baby.
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