Final Month - Computers / Polls

[Vogel]

Committee Rankings come out Tuesday

Reminder that my rankings are designed to like teams that don't give up a lot of points. 
Vogel PC is the version where records matter a lot. Losses are penalized big. It's more in tune to how human polls work.
Vogel Classic + is where the likely better team is ranked higher. Example (5-3) ND beat (7-1) UNC and is actually ranked higher in that formula. LSU slides up 5 spots to #8.

	Vogel PC	Vogel Classic +	Massey	ESPN FPI	Sagarin
1	(8-0) Ohio State	(8-0) Ohio State	(8-0) Ohio State	(8-0) Ohio State	(8-0) Ohio State
2	(8-0) Georgia	(8-0) Georgia	(8-0) Georgia	(7-1) Alabama	(7-1) Alabama
3	(8-0) Tennessee	(8-0) Tennessee	(7-1) Alabama	(8-0) Georgia	(8-0) Georgia
4	(8-0) Michigan	(8-0) Clemson	(8-0) Michigan	(8-0) Michigan	(8-0) Tennessee
5	(8-0) Clemson	(8-0) Michigan	(8-0) Tennessee	(8-0) Tennessee	(8-0) Michigan
6	(7-1) Alabama	(7-1) Alabama	(8-0) TCU	(5-3) Texas	(7-1) Oregon
7	(8-0) TCU	(8-0) TCU	(8-0) Clemson	(8-0) Clemson	(6-2) Utah
8	(7-1) Illinois	(6-2) LSU	(6-2) Kansas State	(6-2) Utah	(8-0) Clemson
9	(7-1) USC	(7-1) Illinois	(6-2) Penn State	(6-2) LSU	(5-3) Texas
10	(7-1) UCLA	(7-1) USC	(8-1) Ole Miss	(7-1) USC	(7-1) USC
11	(7-1) Oregon	(7-1) UCLA	(5-3) Texas	(7-1) Oregon	(6-2) LSU
12	(8-1) Ole Miss	(6-2) Utah	(6-2) Oklahoma State	(6-2) Penn State	(8-0) TCU
13	(6-2) LSU	(7-1) Oregon	(7-1) Oregon	(8-1) Ole Miss	(6-2) Kansas State
14	(6-2) Utah	(6-2) Penn State	(7-1) Illinois	(8-0) TCU	(6-2) Penn State
15	(6-2) Kansas State	(8-1) Ole Miss	(6-2) Utah	(5-3) Baylor	(5-3) Baylor
16	(7-1) Tulane	(6-2) Kansas State	(6-2) LSU	(6-2) Kansas State	(5-3) Oklahoma
17	(6-2) Penn State	(6-2) Oregon State	(7-1) USC	(5-3) Mississippi State	(6-2) Oklahoma State
18	(7-1) North Carolina	(7-1) Tulane	(5-3) Baylor	(5-3) Notre Dame	(5-3) Notre Dame
19	(6-2) Oregon State	(5-3) Notre Dame	(5-3) Oklahoma	(5-3) Minnesota	(8-1) Ole Miss
20	(6-2) Syracuse	(7-1) North Carolina	(7-1) UCLA	(7-1) UCLA	(7-1) UCLA

Big/Intriguing games this weekend
Big Ten
(6-2) Maryland at (4-4) Wisconsin
ACC
(8-0) Clemson at (5-3) Notre Dame
(6-2) Wake Forest at (6-2) NC State
(5-2) James Madison at (5-3) Louisville
Big XII
(5-3) Texas at (6-2) K-State
(6-2) Oklahoma State at (5-3) Kansas
(5-3) Baylor at (5-3) Oklahoma
(4-4) Texas Tech at (8-0) TCU
Pac 12
(6-2) Oregon State at (6-2) Washington - Friday Night
SEC
(8-0) Tennessee at (8-0) Georgia - For the East Division
(7-1) Alabama at (6-2) LSU
(7-1) Liberty at (5-3) Arkansas - Liberty's lone loss was by 1 to (6-2) Wake Forest

[Vogel]

Interesting where Illinois finishes up, they are currently 7-1 and still play Michigan St, Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern

Points allowed by Illinois
23 - Lost - Indiana (3-5)
14 - Won - Minnesota (5-3)
10 - Won - Wisconsin (4-4)
9 - Won - Nebraska (3-5)
7 - Won - Iowa (4-4)
6 - Won - Wyoming (6-3)
3 - Won - Virginia (3-5)
0 - Won - Chattanooga (6-2)

[sportsjock]

Oct 30, 2022 11:30:14 GMT -5 Vogel said:

Interesting where Illinois finishes up, they are currently 7-1 and still play Michigan St, Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern

Points allowed by Illinois
23 - Lost - Indiana (3-5)
14 - Won - Minnesota (5-3)
10 - Won - Wisconsin (4-4)
9 - Won - Nebraska (3-5)
7 - Won - Iowa (4-4)
6 - Won - Wyoming (6-3)
3 - Won - Virginia (3-5)
0 - Won - Chattanooga (6-2)

That Illinois opener against the Hoosiers is a head scratcher.
Bret Bielema is someone we all love to hate.  He may be a jerk, but
a damned good coach and interesting how he is turning the Illini around in short order.

[Birdman]

Oct 30, 2022 12:48:20 GMT -5 sportsjock said:

Oct 30, 2022 11:30:14 GMT -5 Vogel said:

Interesting where Illinois finishes up, they are currently 7-1 and still play Michigan St, Purdue, Michigan and Northwestern

Points allowed by Illinois
23 - Lost - Indiana (3-5)
14 - Won - Minnesota (5-3)
10 - Won - Wisconsin (4-4)
9 - Won - Nebraska (3-5)
7 - Won - Iowa (4-4)
6 - Won - Wyoming (6-3)
3 - Won - Virginia (3-5)
0 - Won - Chattanooga (6-2)

That Illinois opener against the Hoosiers is a head scratcher.
Bret Bielema is someone we all love to hate.  He may be a jerk, but
a damned good coach and interesting how he is turning the Illini around in short order.

Might have been the wake up call they needed. Going to be interesting watching them quietly win the west.

[sportsjock]

Oct 30, 2022 18:12:52 GMT -5 Birdman said:

Oct 30, 2022 12:48:20 GMT -5 sportsjock said:

That Illinois opener against the Hoosiers is a head scratcher.
Bret Bielema is someone we all love to hate.  He may be a jerk, but
a damned good coach and interesting how he is turning the Illini around in short order.

Might have been the wake up call they needed. Going to be interesting watching them quietly win the west.

Their defense is quietly the #1 ranked defense in the nation, only allowing 71 pts. and quietly lead the B1G in points allowed (62).  Sitting quietly at 7-1 and quietly #13 in the AP poll.
The funny part is, I don't believe Bret Bielema has been quiet at anytime in his arrogant, outspoken life....lol

[Vogel]

Avg of 66 Computer Rankings

High and low

		High	Low
1	(8-0) Ohio State	1	8
2	(8-0) Georgia	1	6
3	(8-0) Tennessee	1	5
4	(7-1) Alabama	2	8
5	(8-0) Michigan	2	11
6	(8-0) Clemson	1	17
7	(8-0) TCU	1	24
8	(7-1) Oregon	5	26
9	(6-2) Kansas State	6	19
10	(7-1) USC	7	26
11	(8-1) Ole Miss	7	30
12	(6-2) Utah	6	22
13	(7-1) UCLA	7	29
14	(6-2) LSU	8	25
15	(6-2) Penn State	7	29
16	(7-1) Illinois	4	33
17	(6-2) Oklahoma State	9	37
18	(5-3) Texas	6	39
19	(5-3) Mississippi State	8	37
20	(6-2) Syracuse	13	53
21	(7-1) Tulane	8	56
22	(6-2) Wake Forest	14	39
23	(7-1) North Carolina	10	58
24	(5-3) Notre Dame	11	72
25	(6-2) NC State	14	55

[Vogel]

Re-juggled rankings after Bama/Clemson/Tenn all go down

	Sagarin	Massey	Vogel Classic+	ESPN FPI	ESPN SOR
1	(9-0) Ohio State	(9-0) Georgia	(9-0) Georgia	(9-0) Georgia	(9-0) Georgia
2	(9-0) Georgia	(9-0) Ohio State	(9-0) Ohio State	(9-0) Ohio State	(8-1) Tennessee
3	(7-2) Alabama	(9-0) Michigan	(8-1) Tennessee	(7-2) Alabama	(9-0) Ohio State
4	(9-0) Michigan	(7-2) Alabama	(9-0) Michigan	(9-0) Michigan	(9-0) TCU
5	(8-1) Tennessee	(8-1) Tennessee	(7-2) Alabama	(8-1) Tennessee	(9-0) Michigan
6	(8-1) Oregon	(9-0) TCU	(7-2) LSU	(6-3) Texas	(8-1) Oregon
7	(6-3) Texas	(7-2) Penn State	(8-1) Clemson	(7-2) Utah	(7-2) LSU
8	(7-2) Utah	(6-3) Texas	(9-0) TCU	(8-1) Clemson	(8-1) Clemson
9	(7-2) LSU	(8-1) Oregon	(7-2) Penn State	(7-2) LSU	(7-2) Alabama
10	(7-2) Penn State	(7-2) LSU	(6-3) Notre Dame	(7-2) Penn State	(8-1) USC
11	(6-3) Notre Dame	(8-1) Clemson	(8-1) UCLA	(8-1) Oregon	(8-1) UCLA
12	(6-3) Baylor	(6-3) Kansas State	(8-1) USC	(8-1) Ole Miss	(8-1) Ole Miss
13	(9-0) TCU	(8-1) Ole Miss	(6-3) Texas	(8-1) USC	(8-1) Penn State
14	(8-1) USC	(7-2) Utah	(7-2) Utah	(9-0) TCU	(8-1) North Carolina
15	(8-1) Clemson	(6-3) Baylor	(8-1) Oregon	(6-3) Notre Dame	(8-1) Tulane

[Vogel]

At this website www.thepredictiontracker.com/ this guy keeps track of how Vegas and computer rating systems do at predicting games.

I've been comparing my rankings to this since the start of the 2nd half of the season which started with Oct. 23rd games.
He lists 54 different versions to predict games (he doesn't include me as I don't have a website that I publish to). I've been comparing myself to see if it might be worth paying for a website to publish my rankings to in the future.

I've never heard of Pi-Ratings before, but Pi-Ratings is the top formula over the last 4 weeks. Sagarin and Massey who I trust are right up there and right now my rankings are tied with Massey for 3rd out of 50+ computer formulas.

Vegas is still the king of predicting games. Vegas had LSU as a 3 point favorite vs Arkansas the last time I checked earlier in the week. LSU goes on to win by 3, then the TV "experts" were all talking about LSU having a hangover, etc. Meanwhile Vegas nailed it, like Vegas nailed Georgia beating Tenn when the TV "experts" were in love with Tenn, etc.

So over the last 4 weeks
72.20% (161-62) - Pi-Ratings Mean
71.30% (159-64) - Pi-Rate Ratings
70.85% (158-65) - Pi-Rate Bias
70.85% (158-65) - Massey Ratings
70.85% (158-65) - Vogel Classic
70.40% (157-66) - Vegas lines (updated)
70.40% (157-66) - Sagarin Ratings
.
69.96% (156-67) - Vegas lines (midweek)
.
69.06% (154-59) - ESPN FPI
.
68.61% (153-70) - Vegas lines (opening)
.
Bottom 4
65.45% (144-76) - Dunkel Index
64.57% (144-79) - Catherwood Ratings
64.13% (143-80) - Cleanup Hitter
64.13% (143-80) - PerformanZ Ratings



Ohio State at Maryland
-20.2 OSU - Pi-Rate Mean
-20.8 OSU - Pi-Rate Rating
-22.3 OSU - Pi-Rate Bias
-21.1 OSU - Vogel Classic
-23.3 OSU - Sagarin Ratings

Illinois at Michigan
-18.7 UM - Pi-Rate Mean
-19.8 UM - Pi-Rate Rating
-20.9 UM - Pi-Rate Bias
-14.3 UM - Vogel Classic
-17.5 UM - Sagarin Ratings 
-14.5 UM - Vegas line as of Sunday

Utah at Oregon
-0.7 Oregon - Pi-Rate Mean
-0.6 Oregon - Pi-Rate Rating
-0.8 Utah - Pi-Rate Bias
-3.3 Utah - Vogel Classic
-0.1 Oregon - Sagarin Ratings

Iowa at Minnesota
-5.1 Minn - Pi-Rate Mean
-4.9 Minn - Pi-Rate Raing
-6.1 Minn - Pi-Rate Bias
-1.7 Minn - Vogel Classic
-0.9 Minn - Sagarin Ratings

I think Iowa takes down Minnesota and Utah takes down Oregon. Looking forward to where the Vegas line is going in the Iowa/Minn and Utah/Oregon games. I think Oregon has been overrated by the media. Thought that before the loss to Wash. I think Utah is the best team in the Pac 12.