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Post by sportsjock on Nov 1, 2022 18:26:35 GMT -5
November 1st
1st CFP Rankings for 2022:
1 Tennessee
2 Ohio State
3 Georgia
4 Clemson
5 Michigan
6 Bama
7 TCU
8 Oregon
9 USC
10 LSU
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Post by Vogel on Nov 1, 2022 19:47:15 GMT -5
Vegas has Georgia as an 8 point favorite vs Tennessee. We'll see who should be picking the playoff teams after this weekend. Vegas or the Committee.
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 2, 2022 0:45:36 GMT -5
It's uncanny how accurate Vegas is on their lines. Should be a great game and not sure what outcome would most benefit the Buckeyes.
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Post by gibby23 on Nov 2, 2022 7:46:35 GMT -5
Vegas has Georgia as an 8 point favorite vs Tennessee. We'll see who should be picking the playoff teams after this weekend. Vegas or the Committee. VEGAS
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Post by browns624 on Nov 2, 2022 7:51:18 GMT -5
Vegas has Georgia as an 8 point favorite vs Tennessee. We'll see who should be picking the playoff teams after this weekend. Vegas or the Committee. Vegas always knows
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Post by Vogel on Nov 2, 2022 8:40:53 GMT -5
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 2, 2022 10:54:04 GMT -5
TCU will prove or disprove their relevancy with a challenging 3 game stretch. They play Texas Tech this week and are @ Texas and @ Baylor. Yes, they should be ranked ahead of Alabama.
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Post by Birdman on Nov 2, 2022 18:37:16 GMT -5
good article and funny. Alabama gets their ranking from being solely Alabama, which is warranted and unwarranted.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Nov 2, 2022 23:51:50 GMT -5
IF 2 SEC schools are in top 4 would the committee dare have them play each other in the Semis?
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Post by Vogel on Nov 3, 2022 17:21:59 GMT -5
IF 2 SEC schools are in top 4 would the committee dare have them play each other in the Semis? I think the Committee is trying to set it up so they can get 3 SEC teams in this year. Certain teams would have to stumble for that to happen 1 Tenn - lose to UGA, they then fall to 5 ahead of Bama who they beat 2 Ohio St 3 UGA - rise to #1 with win over Tenn 4 Clem 5 Mich 6 Bama 7 TCU 1 UGA - lose in Champ game to Bama 2 Ohio St 3 Clem - stumble and lose a game but win ACC 4 Mich - lose to Ohio St 5 Tenn 6 Bama - win SEC Champ 7 TCU - stumble and lose once but win Big XII 1 Ohio St (13-0) - Big Ten Champ 2 Bama (12-1) - SEC Champ 3 UGA (12-1) - won 49-3 over #8 Oregon - gotta put them in 4 Tenn (11-1) - Beat SEC Champ, lone loss to SEC runner up - gotta put them in 5 Mich (11-1) 6 Clem (12-1) ACC Champ - worse loss than Tenn, UGA & Mich 7 TCU (12-1) Big XII Champ - worse loss than Tenn, UGA & Mich 8 Oregon (12-1) Pac 12 Champ - lost 49-3 to Georgia ^^^ They will use the worst loss criteria to justify their rankings as why 3 SEC teams got in. If the Committee would have put Tenn #3 to start and Georgia #1 (correct rankings) then Tenn would fall in their rankings lower, but starting out as #1 they won't drop them as much if they lose to Georgia. If Clemson goes undefeated and the Ohio St/Mich winner is undefeated then 3 SEC teams won't be in the playoff, but with a little stumble I'm expecting the Committee to get 3 SEC teams in. Tennessee needed OVERTIME to beat Pitt. I love how the Committee ignored that game. Had Ohio State had an overtime game with Pitt they'd probably be ranked #6 in the opening Rankings.
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Post by browns624 on Nov 7, 2022 9:03:46 GMT -5
After the chaotic weekend, what do we think the top 6 will look like? My guess is
1. Georgia 2. Ohio St 3. Michigan 4. TCU 5. Tennesee 6. Oregon
Part of me could see them keeping Tennesee at 4 as well though.
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Post by sbclives on Nov 7, 2022 12:30:02 GMT -5
Alabama at Ole Miss and TCU at Texas should cause some more shakeups.
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 7, 2022 15:04:22 GMT -5
Tennessee just had their lunch handed to them. Think Oregon should be ranked ahead of them, based on who has the most recent loss . I expect Texas to TCB this weekend in Austin vs. TCU. Losing to the 23rd ranked (CFP) Longhorns should reduce TCU's chances to slim & none, for a playoff spot.
Would love to see Bama bite the 3rd one, this week.
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 8, 2022 21:41:36 GMT -5
Here are the full College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings: November 9th
RANK # TEAM RECORD 1 Georgia 9-0 2 Ohio State 9-0 3 Michigan 9-0 4 TCU 9-0 5 Tennessee 8-1 6 Oregon 8-1 7 LSU 7-2 8 Southern California 8-1 9 Alabama 7-2 10 Clemson 8-1 11 Mississippi 8-1 12 UCLA 8-1 13 Utah 7-2 14 Penn State 7-2 15 North Carolina 8-1 16 NC State 7-2 17 Tulane 8-1 18 Texas 6-3 19 Kansas State 6-3 20 Notre Dame 6-3 21 Illinois 7-2 22 UCF 7-2 23 Florida State 6-3 24 Kentucky 6-3 25 Washington 7-2
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Post by browns624 on Nov 9, 2022 8:22:16 GMT -5
Here are the full College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings: November 9th RANK # TEAM RECORD 1 Georgia 9-0 2 Ohio State 9-0 3 Michigan 9-0 4 TCU 9-0 5 Tennessee 8-1 6 Oregon 8-1 7 LSU 7-2 8 Southern California 8-1 9 Alabama 7-2 10 Clemson 8-1 11 Mississippi 8-1 12 UCLA 8-1 13 Utah 7-2 14 Penn State 7-2 15 North Carolina 8-1 16 NC State 7-2 17 Tulane 8-1 18 Texas 6-3 19 Kansas State 6-3 20 Notre Dame 6-3 21 Illinois 7-2 22 UCF 7-2 23 Florida State 6-3 24 Kentucky 6-3 25 Washington 7-2 I think this is exactly how it should be at the moment. Glad the committee put undefeated TCU above Tennessee. Part of me really thought they were going to throw Tennessee a 1 loss SEC team at 4.
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Post by Vogel on Nov 10, 2022 8:41:08 GMT -5
My pet peeve every single year when the Committee talks about non-conf schedules is they never mention how the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 play 9 Conf games and just 3 non-conf games while the ACC and SEC play 8 Conf games and 4 non-conf games.
Tennessee UT Martin Ball State Akron 4th game which for Big Ten, Pac 12 and Big 12 would be a Conf game - Pitt - 3 easy games like Michigan and 1 more easy game than Penn State
Kentucky - who the committee decided to rank this week, Youngstown State Miami, OH Northern Illinois 4th game will be Thanksgiving weekend vs Louisville - 3 easy games like Michigan and 1 more easy game than Penn State
LSU Southern New Mexico Florida State - LOST 4th game will be UAB - 3 easy games like Michigan and 1 more easy game than Penn State
Michigan Colorado State Hawaii Connecticut
Penn State Ohio Central Michigan Auburn
Now where this really comes into play is the middle of the pack teams. For instance Wisconsin, Purdue this year in the Big Ten. Wisconsin Illinois State New Mexico State Washington State - lost - Had Wisconsin played Ball State instead of Washington St they'd be 6-3 right now instead of 5-4.
Purdue Indiana State Florida Atlantic Syracuse - lost -Had Purdue played Georgia State instead of Syracuse they'd be 6-3 right now instead of 5-4.
Legit chance Wisconsin would be ranked right now at 6-3 with wins over (6-3) Purdue and (6-3) Maryland. Instead they are 5-4, Purdue is 5-4 and both are considered by the Committee to be completely inferior to Kentucky. Kentucky's big wins over (6-3) Miss St and (5-4) Florida.
Get ready for when the Committee puts Tennessee in the playoff over a 1 loss Michigan because Michigan played an inferior non-Conf schedule to Tenn.
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Post by Vogel on Nov 10, 2022 9:26:12 GMT -5
Big Ten 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - Ohio State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - Penn State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - Michigan State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Wisconsin 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Illinois 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Purdue 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Nebraska 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Iowa 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Northwestern 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Minnesota 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys - Michigan 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys - Maryland 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Rutgers 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Indiana
Big XII 11 BCS teams - 1 little boys (including 1 FCS) - West Virginia 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - Oklahoma 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - Texas 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - TCU 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Texas Tech 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Iowa State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Oklahoma State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Kansas State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Kansas 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Baylor
Pac 12 11 BCS teams - 1 little boys - Colorado 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys - USC 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Oregon 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Utah 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Arizona 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Arizona State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Cal 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Washington 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Washington State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Stanford 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - UCLA 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Oregon State
ACC 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Clemson 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Boston College 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Florida State 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Syracuse 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Georgia Tech 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Duke 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Pittsburgh 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys - Louisville 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Virginia 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - North Carolina 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Virginia Tech 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Wake Forest 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Miami 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - NC State
SEC 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Georgia 10 BCS teams - 2 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Florida 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Tennessee 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - LSU 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Alabama 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Auburn 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Mississippi State 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Missouri 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Texas A&M 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Kentucky 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - South Carolina 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Ole Miss 9 BCS teams - 3 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Vanderbilt 8 BCS teams - 4 little boys (including 1 FCS) - Arkansas
- Who gets left out of the playoff the most? Pac 12, and they play one of the toughest schedules - If not for Oklahoma the Big XII would be getting left out every year and their schedules are right there with the Pac 12. - The Big Ten is typically in the middle of the pack but the Big Ten ALWAYS plays the least FCS schools - The SEC always plays the easiest schedules and gets 2 teams into the playoffs regularly.
The Big Ten even in the expanded playoff needs to fix their schedules to pad win totals like the SEC. All schools not named Ohio St, Penn St and Michigan should be scheduling 1 FCS school like the SEC does (least chance of an upset). The Big Ten needs to drop 1 conf game to match the SEC, that extra game is giving HALF the teams in the league an extra loss that the Committee uses against the Conf.
- Watch what Oklahoma and Texas do once they join the SEC probably no more 10 BCS teams being played, they will drop it down to 9 and a FCS school will get added.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Nov 10, 2022 20:52:05 GMT -5
The NCAA needs to pass a rule saying all Power Five conferences must have the same number of league games
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Post by cbus on Nov 14, 2022 8:46:42 GMT -5
- The SEC always plays the easiest schedules and gets 2 teams into the playoffs regularly.
Twice in 8 years so 25% of the time. I wouldn't call that regularly.
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Post by browns624 on Nov 14, 2022 9:22:28 GMT -5
Whoever loses OSU Michigan is out unless TCU loses at some point. We all know the committee is putting two SEC teams in. Let's not kid ourselves.
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 14, 2022 13:22:00 GMT -5
Whoever loses OSU Michigan is out unless TCU losses at some point. We all know the committee is putting two SEC teams in. Let's not kid ourselves. The 6th and final CFP rankings will be released Sunday November 1st. The day after the conference championships. If the battle of the #2 & #3 ranked undefeateds, (OSU/Mich.) is very close and contentious, I can easily see two B1G teams in the final four. TCU has found ways to win, but haven't exhibited any form of dominance in any games this year. If they manage to win the remainder of their regular season games, expect a rematch with Kansas St. in the Big 12 Championship. A stumble would open the door for two B1G teams, or possibly Tennessee, who will be spectators like the OSU/MICH. loser.
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Post by Vogel on Nov 14, 2022 16:57:04 GMT -5
The Committee's initial rankings were set up to get 3 SEC teams in the playoff this year if things broke "right". If TCU goes 12-0 then loses in the Big XII Champ game then get ready for possibly 3 SEC teams in the playoff. It's what ESPN wants and ESPN controls the Committee.
Meanwhile the Committee/ESPN has treated the ACC like they are the Sun Belt (9-1) North Carolina (9-1) Clemson on a collision course to both be (11-1) playing for the ACC Championship The Committee/ESPN has already made it clear they don't want a (12-1) ACC Champ.
The Committee/ESPN has already made it clear they think the ACC is trash and LSU is the greatest team outside of the State of Georgia. 24 - Florida State 23 - LSU ^^^^ Ignore that. The Committee/ESPN loves LSU, there is no talk about that loss
40 - Tennessee 13 - LSU ^^^^ Ignore that. The Committee/ESPN loves LSU, there is no talk about that big loss like they did when Ohio St lost to Iowa or Purdue by similar margins
LSU has 2 losses. Ignored. They will be in the playoff if they win the SEC. Meanwhile, Clemson/North Carolina will be left out of the playoff at 12-1. There conference foe, FSU already beat LSU. Ignored.
Middle of the pack in the ACC, Pittsburgh took Tennessee to overtime. Ignored, the Committee/ESPN proclaims the SEC is amazing the ACC is trash.
A 12-1 ACC Champ better be in over Tennessee.
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Post by Vogel on Nov 14, 2022 18:10:49 GMT -5
The Committee/ESPN only talk about ESPN created data points. ESPN's Strength of Schedule is not the same as Sagarin's SOS for example, but the Committee/ESPN try to pretend their SOS metric is the gold stanard. The Committee only seems to use ESPN derived data points. Now we've all seem how ESPN one year will talk about "Game Control" as the main metric needed to decide who gets in and the next year it's all about "Strength of Record". | Strength of Record | Game Control | Strength of Schedule | TCU | 1 | 15 | 38 | UGA | 2 | 1 | 44 | Tenn | 3 | 2 | 3 | OSU | 4 | 3 | 60 | Mich | 5 | 4 | 82 | Bama | 6 | 5 | 6 | LSU | 7 | 29 | 11 | Clem | 8 | 17 | 55 | PSU | 9 | 6 | 14 | USC | 10 | 8 | 65 | UNC | 11 | 39 | 75 |
So if the final spot is between - TCU/Tenn - ESPN/Committee will harp on the "game control" metric - Mich/LSU - ESPN/Committee will ignore the "game control" metric and harp on "Strength of schedule" I always enjoy the propaganda that ESPN sells. I'm always amazed at all the NPC's that believe everything the TV tells them. The SEC is ESPN's baby like the Big Ten is Fox's baby. The problem with CFB right now is that ESPN owns the Committee and rigs everything in favor of the SEC. Different Strength of Schedule's using different formula's
| ESPN | Sagarin | Massey | Vogel | TCU | 38 | 23 | 8 | 43 | UGA | 44 | 34 | 19 | 15 | Tenn | 3 | 30 | 3 | 11 | OSU | 60 | 46 | 7 | 45 | Mich | 82 | 71 | 52 | 84 | Bama | 6 | 11 | 2 | 9 | LSU | 11 | 4 | 10 | 3 | Clem | 55 | 54 | 43 | 28 | PSU | 14 | 32 | 11 | 25 | USC | 65 | 52 | 50 | 69 | UNC | 75 | 60 | 56 | 58 |
ESPN is the "king" though aka loudest mouth. ESPN FPI - another metric they use when they want to promote a certain team over another 1 - (10-0) UGA 2 - (10-0) OSU 3 - (8-2) Bama 4 - (10-0) Mich 5 - (9-1) Tenn 6 - (8-2) Utah 7 - (6-4) Texas ---- Yep 6-4 Texas #7 8 - (8-2) Penn St 9 - (9-1) Clemson 10 - (8-2) LSU . 16 - (10-0) TCU (10-0) TCU #16 (6-4) Texas #7 Hmmmm I have a co-worker that believes the ESPN FPI has an input about $$MONEY$$ that can be generated from that team. It makes sense. No way else can I believe you have input information that has TCU #16 at 10-0, and Texas #7 at 6-4 unless an input is "ability to generate ESPN money"
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wetsu
All Conference
Posts: 322
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Post by wetsu on Nov 14, 2022 20:28:51 GMT -5
Great work Vogel.
Who has the #1 strength of schedule in your opinion or what has your research indicated?
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Post by baldref on Nov 14, 2022 21:15:28 GMT -5
Vogel, as usual, is spot on about eSECpn The committee will do all it can to promote the SEC because, as Vogel correctly points out, eSECpn has rigged the system to favor the SEC - the main college fb moneymaker for that network. It may even get worse because of the new TV network mega deals for some leagues that gave the dirty digit to eSECpn and are going to other networks. That is another reason, IMO, why the playoffs must be expanded. Screw eSECpn.
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wetsu
All Conference
Posts: 322
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Post by wetsu on Nov 14, 2022 22:12:56 GMT -5
Vogel, as usual, is spot on about eSECpn The committee will do all it can to promote the SEC because, as Vogel correctly points out, eSECpn has rigged the system to favor the SEC - the main college fb moneymaker for that network. It may even get worse because of the new TV network mega deals for some leagues that gave the dirty digit to eSECpn and are going to other networks. That is another reason, IMO, why the playoffs must be expanded. Screw eSECpn. Couldn't agree more. Another thing that struck me about Vogel's post was the eSECpn preoccupation with Texas. While there is plenty of corruption to go around I am becoming convinced that the big oil money (not to mention the tech money) is going to blow this NIL thing into a parallel dimension. I can understand why Ewers went back to Texas but if you look at the Texas roster there are plenty of transfer guys that presumably used the portal. Now I will confess to not knowing all the ins and ous of the portal but it strikes me as free agency. Long story short, I expect Texas to rocket up the rankings in the next couple of years.
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Post by Vogel on Nov 15, 2022 15:10:12 GMT -5
Who has the #1 strength of schedule in your opinion or what has your research indicated?
| Sagarin | Vogel | Massey | ESPN | 1 | Stanford | Auburn | Texas | Vandy (SEC) | 2 | Texas | Indiana | Alabama | Miss St (SEC) | 3 | Colorado | LSU | Tenn
| Tenn (SEC) | 4 | LSU | Stanford | K-State | Auburn (SEC) | 5 | K-State | Texas | Oklahoma | Florida (SEC) | 6 | Auburn | Colorado | Iowa St | Alabama (SEC) | 7 | Iowa St | Miss St | Ohio St | Mich St | 8 | Miss St | Missouri | TCU | Missouri (SEC) | 9 | Arizona | Alabama | Miss St | Indiana | 10 | Texas Tech | Iowa St | LSU | Iowa |
Personally I think Colorado has the toughest SOS. They play 9 Conf games non-Conf they played (10-0) TCU (7-3) Minnesota (7-3) Air Force They play 11 Power 5 schools, only team out of 131 to do so and all 3 of their non-Conf opponents are really good this year. Don't worry though, ESPN has Colorado with the 31st toughest schedule. Vandy is #1 according to ESPN with a non-Conf of: (2-9) Hawaii (3-7) Northern Illinois (6-4) Wake Forest (8-3) Elon (FCS)
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Post by sportsjock on Nov 16, 2022 0:16:31 GMT -5
November 16 Here are the complete top 25 rankings:
RANK TEAM RECORD 1 Georgia 10-0 2 Ohio State 10-0 3 Michigan 10-0 4 TCU 10-0 5 Tennessee 9-1 6 LSU 8-2 7 Southern California 9-1 8 Alabama 8-2 9 Clemson 9-1 10 Utah 8-2 11 Penn State 8-2 12 Oregon 8-2 13 North Carolina 9-1 14 Mississippi 8-2 15 Kansas State 7-3 16 UCLA 8-2 17 Washington 8-2 18 Notre Dame 7-3 19 Florida State 7-3 20 UCF 8-2 21 Tulane 8-2 22 Oklahoma State 7-3 23 Oregon State 7-3 24 NC State 7-3 25 Cincinnati 8-2
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Post by Birdman on Nov 16, 2022 9:07:33 GMT -5
While I don’t disagree that Tennessee is a number 5 team, it kills me thinking they wouldn’t do that to any other conference team, but the SEC. They’re setting it up for them to slide in should 2-4 lose and bam they get what they want, 2 SEC teams in the playoffs.
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Post by cbus on Nov 19, 2022 6:52:07 GMT -5
Is there any chance the Committee puts 2 SEC teams into the playoffs because they think they are the better teams? The 2 times it has happened before the SEC teams both won and then played for the National Championship.
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