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Post by buckeyekid on Dec 19, 2016 10:41:41 GMT -5
If the season were to end today, what would the Browns 2nd 1st rounder be? TIA
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Post by tigeralum01 on Dec 19, 2016 11:05:39 GMT -5
If carolina loses tonight, it would be either the 7th, 8th or 9th pick from philly
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Post by 4 on Dec 20, 2016 2:58:45 GMT -5
2 top 10 picks browns better not mess this one up. And then 2 second round. For now I'd say DE Texas a&m then a qb. But the mocks will change a million times.
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Post by buckeyekid on Dec 20, 2016 7:21:13 GMT -5
Who do you guys like as the QB pick ? Is there a difference maker out there? I too like the AM DE. He's a difference maker and a starter from game 1 more than likely. I assume we'll get a good CB if we do our homework a little better than past years. Last year I throw out taking Michael Thomas as a 2nd rounder or so, is there another good hands guy like him out there as well. If we can land Jake Butt from Mich I'd be good with him as a 2nd rounder possibly. A stud OL guy or 2 is probably also a need as Joe Thomas won't last forever.
Thinking outside the box---how about IDing the best strength and Conditioning guy in the world and get him on board. So important.
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Post by DrTorch on Dec 20, 2016 9:50:32 GMT -5
we still doin this? really?
what freakin year is it anyway?
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2017 draft
Dec 20, 2016 10:47:27 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by buckeyekid on Dec 20, 2016 10:47:27 GMT -5
It's year 1 of Hue Jackson. He gets a 3 year pass in my opinion.
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2017 draft
Dec 20, 2016 11:03:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by misterbreeze on Dec 20, 2016 11:03:24 GMT -5
I agree, give Hue and the front office a few years to show progress. It starts by drafting quality players and they need to do better than they did last year, allowing that the jury is still out on those decisions given added picks this year. This team still has major needs at most positions, especially the lines. They can't miss on their player assessments, the core element of the analytic process. Progress for me is seeing the process work and result in quality NFL-caliber players being added to the roster. Then we will see if Hue is the right HC for the Browns.
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Post by DrTorch on Dec 20, 2016 19:51:59 GMT -5
when you go 0-16 even one win is progress
so Huge Action has that going for him
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Post by 4 on Dec 21, 2016 6:29:03 GMT -5
North Carolina qb I would take. And should get atleast 2 secondary picks maybe 3. 1 has to come early tho like second round. O line as well and a weapon like jake butt would help as well. He has graham, gronk potential. But hopefully browns don't mess up this draft.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Dec 26, 2016 19:36:04 GMT -5
Who do you guys like as the QB pick ? Is there a difference maker out there? I too like the AM DE. He's a difference maker and a starter from game 1 more than likely. I assume we'll get a good CB if we do our homework a little better than past years. Last year I throw out taking Michael Thomas as a 2nd rounder or so, is there another good hands guy like him out there as well. If we can land Jake Butt from Mich I'd be good with him as a 2nd rounder possibly. A stud OL guy or 2 is probably also a need as Joe Thomas won't last forever. Thinking outside the box---how about IDing the best strength and Conditioning guy in the world and get him on board. So important. QB? Do not take a QB that averages 1.25 INTs/game. The Browns can't pry Mickey Marotti away from Urban Meyer.
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 4, 2017 11:07:44 GMT -5
I think I'm all in on San Darnold now.
Trade one of those firsts to the highest bidder for picks in 2018
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Post by DrTorch on Jan 4, 2017 15:05:32 GMT -5
i'm all in on Malik Hooker, and trading down to get him
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Post by misterbreeze on Jan 4, 2017 18:05:30 GMT -5
Hooker would be a great addition to the Browns. I wonder if he would be available at #12.
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Post by 4 on Jan 5, 2017 6:15:12 GMT -5
Be nice to get Garrett and then hooker in first round. Then QB mahomes and o line man in second. That's what most are hoping for. Mahomes has good skills to be a good qb. But can't throw em in there right away. More of a project.
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Post by buckeyekid on Jan 5, 2017 7:23:48 GMT -5
Would you trade the 33 pick and the 12th to put yourself in position to grab Hooker if that's what it took? I saw one board had Hooker at 5.
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Post by DrTorch on Jan 5, 2017 7:49:24 GMT -5
i can't see Malik lasting longer than the 7th pick, and i think he is the top talent in the draft...i would trade the 12th and 33rd to get Malik...look what Earl Watson has done for Seattle and look what Ed Reed did for Baltimore
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Post by tommygunn on Jan 5, 2017 8:38:29 GMT -5
Lol, here we go again drafting defensive guys 1st round. Dude, we have an anemic offense. No WR threat, a RB that wants out of Cleveland and an O line that is marginal. Oh and absolutely no qb. Comparing Seattle and Baltimore to Cleveland, yeah right. What the Browns need to do is draft WR's and a QB and O line.
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 5, 2017 12:50:54 GMT -5
I wouldn't be upset with Hooker. We need safeties....a safety....
Trubisky and Kizer seem to be the 2 QBs in the Top 10, with Watson below them.
Within the first 6 picks, teams looking for QBs are: 2 SF 3 CHI 6 NYJ
One of the first things I'd do after the Super Bowl is make it known the 1st pick is up to the highest bidder.
If someone offers a Goff type deal[granted TEN moved up from 15], I'm taking it, as long as it includes a 1st next year. If nothing good comes through, I'm taking Garrett.....and that's not a bad consolation prize IMO.
We do need QBs, WR and RB, but I'm not sure this is the draft to do it. Wait for next year for the skill players, where several places have about half of the Top 10 projected to be QBs, WRs or RBs. Walter Football projects 3 this year(Trubisky, Kizer, Fournette)
Seems to be a terrible year to have two firsts.
TLDR; Draft Objective- Get 2018 1st Round pick(s), Don't draft: QB or WR Draft S, CB, OL
Prepare for 2-5 wins in 2017
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 5, 2017 12:57:35 GMT -5
Potential 2018 1st Round Picks
QB: Jackson Lousiville Darnold USC Rosen UCLA Browning Washington
RB: Barkley Penn State
WR: Kirk Texas A&M Ridley Alabama Brown OSU Rudolph FSU
A couple places have 5 of the first 6 picks as WR or QB.
I'd take every one of those QBs over any projected in the 1st this year.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2017 15:49:17 GMT -5
I wouldn't be upset with Hooker. We need safeties....a safety.... Trubisky and Kizer seem to be the 2 QBs in the Top 10, with Watson below them. Within the first 6 picks, teams looking for QBs are: 2 SF 3 CHI 6 NYJ One of the first things I'd do after the Super Bowl is make it known the 1st pick is up to the highest bidder. If someone offers a Goff type deal[granted TEN moved up from 15], I'm taking it, as long as it includes a 1st next year. If nothing good comes through, I'm taking Garrett.....and that's not a bad consolation prize IMO. We do need QBs, WR and RB, but I'm not sure this is the draft to do it. Wait for next year for the skill players, where several places have about half of the Top 10 projected to be QBs, WRs or RBs. Walter Football projects 3 this year(Trubisky, Kizer, Fournette) Seems to be a terrible year to have two firsts. TLDR; Draft Objective- Get 2018 1st Round pick(s), Don't draft: QB or WR Draft S, CB, OL Prepare for 2-5 wins in 2017 For God's sake...enough with trading down. Has that ever worked out for them? Either you pick the good players or you have to play and/or watch them for the next 10 years
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 5, 2017 16:35:06 GMT -5
Just because you lost 7 slot games in a row doesn't increase your chance of winning the 8th at all. However, increasing the amount of games you play does increase the amount of times you win.
Interpreting odds is tough.....I get it. Besides, the point I stated is to get picks in the 1st next year.
Like it or not, with an analytics driven front office, you shouldn't be surprised if the Browns trade down or even out of the 1st. High picks are extremely overvalued in general and by Jimmy Johnsons Draft Value Chart.
Do you really think LA didn't severely overpay for Goff last year, or do you really think that since the Browns have traded down in the past that it means they are more likely to fail by trading down? I guess STL Rams should've stayed put in 2012 and taken RG3 instead of getting Michael Brockers, Janoris Jenkins, Alec Ogletree and Greg Robinson?
CLE needs a franchise QB. The QB class this year is weak.
Yeah....let's reach for a QB that likely wouldn't even be a top 5 QB in the 2018 draft because we once fucked up by trading Julio Jones away....great logic.
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 5, 2017 17:11:50 GMT -5
Since the Front Office are Ivy League guys, you can assume they are using their own Draft Pick Value Chart. Probably something similar to this: harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/Comparing Jimmy Johnsons Draft Value vs Harvard Required picks to trade up to 1st pick: JJ2nd and 31st 3rd and 21st 4th and 12th 5th and 10th Harvard2nd and 161st 3rd and 103rd 4th and 75th 5th and 58th Now lets look at what LA gave up last year for Goff(I used pick 15 value for the '17 picks) JJRams get:3089.6 Titans get:3425 Difference:335.4 Equivalent Value: Pick 57 HarvardRams get:631 Titans get:1071.1 Difference:440 Equivalent Value: Pick 2 So by trading down, the Titans got more in value than the Rams, by either method. JJs draft value gives the Titans the equivalent of the 57th OVERALL pick more in Value Harvards draft value gives the Titans the equivalent of the 2nd OVERALL Pick more in Value. and that doesn't even take into the fact that I used pick 15 to value to '17 picks, when the '17 picks the Rams give to the Titans is the #5 Overall. If you consider that: JJs draft value gives the Titans the equivalent of the 15th OVERALL Pick more in Value Harvards draft value gives the Titans the equivalent of the 1st OVERALL Pick and Pick 142 more in Value. The further up the draft board you are, the more value you can get by trading down. But yes.....don't trade down cause the previous regime messed up.....smh
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 5, 2017 17:20:36 GMT -5
In Summary, I'm trading that #1 overall if I can, and then I'm with DRT and trading up with the 12 pick(which ironically came from TRADING DOWN) to grab Hooker before he's off the board.
If I can't trade the 1, I'm taking Garrett and staying at 12.
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Post by misterbreeze on Jan 5, 2017 19:09:27 GMT -5
Are there scouting assessment scores for each player that also get considered in the overall assessment of a potential trade? I am thinking that the analysis above is based on average values for a pick and that they could be adjusted by a coefficient developed for each prospective players being considered. For example, do you think they will have a coefficient for Hooker from a scouting assessment that would indicate he is worth what an average 7th round pick typically produces? I envision a coefficent of 1.0 for perfect matches (player is selected at the appropriate # based on scouting score), >1 for players with higher expected value than the pick # and <1 for lower value than the pick #. Seems like there has to be a way to accommodate player-specific values in the decision to trade up or down.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Jan 5, 2017 20:13:35 GMT -5
Potential 2018 1st Round Picks QB: Jackson Lousiville Darnold USC Rosen UCLA Browning Washington RB: Barkley Penn State WR: Kirk Texas A&M Ridley Alabama Brown OSU Rudolph FSU Noah Brown is a 1st round pick next year??
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Post by tommygunn on Jan 6, 2017 8:06:18 GMT -5
Just wait for it, the Browns pick up Tony broke *** Romo.
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 6, 2017 10:32:43 GMT -5
Potential 2018 1st Round Picks QB: Jackson Lousiville Darnold USC Rosen UCLA Browning Washington RB: Barkley Penn State WR: Kirk Texas A&M Ridley Alabama Brown OSU Rudolph FSU Noah Brown is a 1st round pick next year?? I think it was Walter Football I was looking at when I was posted that. Their 2018 Mock had him mid-late first, maybe around 20. I'll check when I get to work. EDIT: 18. Los Angeles Rams: Noah Brown, WR, Ohio State 2017 NFL Mock Draft Pick (as of 1/5): None The Rams are so devoid of talent at receiver that they're counting on Brian Quick improving and contributing more. It's a sad state of affairs in Los Angeles, but it could change with some quality offseason decisions.
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Post by CEOSouth on Jan 6, 2017 10:49:52 GMT -5
Are there scouting assessment scores for each player that also get considered in the overall assessment of a potential trade? I am thinking that the analysis above is based on average values for a pick and that they could be adjusted by a coefficient developed for each prospective players being considered. For example, do you think they will have a coefficient for Hooker from a scouting assessment that would indicate he is worth what an average 7th round pick typically produces? I envision a coefficent of 1.0 for perfect matches (player is selected at the appropriate # based on scouting score), >1 for players with higher expected value than the pick # and <1 for lower value than the pick #. Seems like there has to be a way to accommodate player-specific values in the decision to trade up or down. As a Browns fans, and with a Ivy League touted Front Office, I would hope the Browns have a much more elaborate system than even the link above. I'd imagine they have their own variation of Draft Pick value based on history, performance, longevity and projections. As you also stated, I would think they would have a current Draft player profile assessment, and are likely taking every bit of data they can find on prospects, with the idea that the closer they get to the draft, the more accurate their profiles become. Obviously scouting is a decent part of putting those assessments together, so who is scouting is important, however, as the technology increases, and more data points and sets become measurable, the less dependent we become on having scouts with 'a good eye' much in the same way that hand timed 40s aren't generally trusted anymore. Maybe my idea of the Browns Front Office is wrong. I just assume they are crunching all the numbers they can get their hands on. Regardless, I certainly hope they are factoring their player assessments into any trade plans. It has been said recently that the Browns have an 'astronomical' grade on Garrett, so theoretically you would think that a trade for the 1st would have to return a value that accounts for that. That's something that Rams Titans analysis doesn't account for...the individual needs of each team and what kind of value you assign that. Obviously the Titans didn't need God as much as the Rams did. Then again, that rumored astronomical grade on Garrett may be a smoke screen to drive up any potential return.
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Post by misterbreeze on Jan 6, 2017 13:45:25 GMT -5
Another benefit of having an analytical process to guide decision-making is the ability conduct an objective retrospective evaluation of the decision-making process, so as learn and improve future performance. While the jury is still out on their 2016 draft, a preliminary analysis of their decisions last April could be done. For example, given what we've seen of Kessler, Coleman, etc, did the process work as expected, e.g., validation of where they were picked? I wouldn't expect this to be common knowledge for public consumption but sure hope they are doing it.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Jan 6, 2017 17:27:02 GMT -5
On the "Browns Red Zone" show, Jim Donovan said THE #1 criteria given to the "front office" from Haslam for last year's draft was to be 100% sure all players drafted had "good character", due to the "Johnny Football" fiasco. Which at this point appears to have been successful. Doug Dieken chimed in by saying, "This is the NFL, there aren't that many choir boys in this league."
"Nice guys finish last"?
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