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Post by BellevueBuckeye on Sept 15, 2019 8:52:20 GMT -5
Shelby's first MOAC league game.
This will be the the first time the battle of SR 314 has been played since 2016, and here are the results of the 9 meetings in this century (the last 4 of which were NOL games)
2008 Shelby 40-13
2009 Shelby 43-14
2010 Shelby 34-31 OT
2011 Ontario 28-20
2012 Shelby 34-14
2013 Ontario 22-16
2014 Ontario 21-20
2015 Shelby 46-13
2016 Shelby 49-7
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 15, 2019 10:53:36 GMT -5
I would like to see Ontario win, for selfish reason, but my head says Whippets by 10.
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tori2
All Conference
2017 Playoff Pick'em Champion
Posts: 358 
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Post by tori2 on Sept 15, 2019 15:25:34 GMT -5
Really ? Shelby by 25
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Post by buckeye33 on Sept 15, 2019 16:23:22 GMT -5
Shelby by 20
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 16, 2019 18:13:51 GMT -5
Ok, I've been talked into it; Whippets by 10 and 1/2. Don't get greedy 😂
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Post by richrod on Sept 16, 2019 19:55:17 GMT -5
two words... Running Clock.
Whippets by 40. Ontario in for 2 rough weeks in a row
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gtab
All Conference
"If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it 'till it is broke"
Posts: 368
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Post by gtab on Sept 17, 2019 8:46:23 GMT -5
Shelby takes this one, 41 - 8.
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Post by moacpops on Sept 17, 2019 11:06:36 GMT -5
Shelby wins big. Running clock in effect.
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Post by BellevueBuckeye on Sept 18, 2019 7:25:44 GMT -5
calpreps.com: Shelby 35 Ontario 21
Drew Pasteur: Shelby by 9
Houseworth's: Shelby by 10
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 18, 2019 12:24:46 GMT -5
calpreps.com: Shelby 35 Ontario 21 Drew Pasteur: Shelby by 9 Houseworth's: Shelby by 10 hey, Jake's a genius! Okay, not really. I'm just mildly smart. |
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Sept 18, 2019 13:11:04 GMT -5
Jake, this ain't a slam, but I like to elaborate on these predictions by those guys for the sake of everybody on here as a whole, since they tend to be misleading in some sense. This is also my profession, so I like to make sure we know what we are seeing in those rankings.
The predicted winner is accurate, but not necessarily the score.
Those prediction systems are more better taken as an "expected value" output than an actual prediction of the score.
Expected value example: Deal or No Deal. There are two suitcases left. One has $500. The other has $1. The expected value of a selected suitcase is $250.50, which is determined by taking the weighted average of the outcomes. 50% chance of getting $500, and 50% chance of getting $1. In equation form:
(50% x 500) + (50% x 1) = $250.50.
So even though it is impossible for a selected suitcase to be $250.50, that is deemed the expected value of the suitcase. That is because if you were given 10,000 opportunities to pick between one of those two suitcases, the average value of money you would receive would wind up around $250.50.
Drew Pasteur runs 10,000 simulations of each matchup. The most likely outcome is beaten down to a regressed average based on those 10,000 simulations, just like the suitcases. He would be running a weighted average of each and every one of those 10,000 simulations. Simulation one has a weighted value of 0.0001, multiplied by the margin of victory for Shelby, say 10. Then the next simulation has a weighted value of 0.0001, multiplied by the margin of victory, say 24. Etc etc etc etc.
When I run my predictions for MLB scores (see the MLB thread), I would say 90% of games have predicted scores where both teams are scoring between 3-6 runs. My model will never predict a team to score 0 or 10 runs, because I am working off of an average of all outcomes. However, I know that if I predict a team to win by 2+ runs, that in reality they may score 7+ runs with great frequency.
Statistics are funky, man.
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Post by maplecityjake on Sept 18, 2019 13:40:07 GMT -5
If I could do a double-like, I would. Well done!
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A no.1
All Conference
Posts: 159
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Post by A no.1 on Sept 18, 2019 15:58:37 GMT -5
Statistics are funky, man. They are like a bikini. They show a lot but they don't show everything. |
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gtab
All Conference
"If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it 'till it is broke"
Posts: 368
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Post by gtab on Sept 19, 2019 8:20:04 GMT -5
Definition of Statistics: The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures. ~ Evan Esar  |
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Sept 19, 2019 12:10:22 GMT -5
I justify the funkiness by saying it is an "index." Drew Pasteur's "index" gives Shelby a 10 "point" margin in his "index." Following that logic, I would say it's actually ten points in the index, not ten points from a TD and a field goal. I think that is technically more correct, but it is more appealing to communicate expected success via units used in the sport. As opposed to simply saying *Shelby 68% chance of winning*.
...class is dismissed?
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Post by dude on Sept 19, 2019 14:23:48 GMT -5
Shelby should have a running clock in this one.
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Post by BellevueBuckeye on Sept 19, 2019 14:34:06 GMT -5
This game will be on 99.3 The Light, and will be broadcast on WMFD at 9am and 7:30pm on Saturday
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 18:42:16 GMT -5
Shelby 21
Ontario 0
2Q
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 18:53:17 GMT -5
Shelby 28
Ontario 0
Still Q2
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 19:14:33 GMT -5
Shelby 35
Ontario 0
Half
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 19:47:11 GMT -5
Shelby 42
Ontario 0
3Q
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 19:57:12 GMT -5
Shelby 42
Ontario 7
Q4
Whippet backup QB throws the pick-six.
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 20:10:55 GMT -5
Shelby 42
Ontario 7
Final
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Post by utsherman on Sept 20, 2019 20:29:42 GMT -5
If I heard correctly, Marek Albert had 6 sacks?! Yikes.
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Post by buckeye33 on Sept 20, 2019 20:36:00 GMT -5
Yep, he had 6 sacks...dominant tonight
I think Ontario has 2, maybe 3 first downs entire game
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Sept 20, 2019 21:13:38 GMT -5
Shelby takes this one, 41 - 8. Psh. Not bad. |
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gtab
All Conference
"If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it 'till it is broke"
Posts: 368
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Post by gtab on Sept 20, 2019 21:40:30 GMT -5
Shelby takes this one, 41 - 8. Psh. Not bad. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once and a while. |
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