Week 5: Pleasant (33) at Shelby (54)

[GHS 1999]

Have these 2 schools ever played before?

[buckeye33]

Don’t believe they have

[richrod]

Shelby wins by two scores, I also think its Shelby and CF week 10 for the MOAC Crown. Heck, they both stay healthy we might get that game twice this year.

[wallpass]

Pleasant has decided not to play several of their best players on defense to lower their possibility of getting hurt/worn out. It killed them against Harding and if they do it this week, Shelby will beat them bad! If they put their best athletes on the field instead of worrying about what might happen, this could be a close game. However, after watching what they have done with their talent the last few years, I have no confidence that this will happen.

[dude]

Drew Pasteur has Shelby by 1. With this being at home for Shelby, I would interpret that to mean he feels Pleasant is a slightly better team.

[buckeye33]

Sept 23, 2019 10:24:35 GMT -5 dude said:

Drew Pasteur has Shelby by 1. With this being at home for Shelby, I would interpret that to mean he feels Pleasant is a slightly better team.

He also had Shelby only beating Ontario by 8.

[dude]

Sept 23, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5 buckeye33 said:

Sept 23, 2019 10:24:35 GMT -5 dude said:

Drew Pasteur has Shelby by 1. With this being at home for Shelby, I would interpret that to mean he feels Pleasant is a slightly better team.

He also had Shelby only beating Ontario by 8.

From what I have seen over the years, he becomes more accurate as the season goes on and he gets more numbers on teams, minus injuries that he cannot account for.

[shelbyrr11]

Sept 23, 2019 11:20:43 GMT -5 buckeye33 said:

Sept 23, 2019 10:24:35 GMT -5 dude said:

Drew Pasteur has Shelby by 1. With this being at home for Shelby, I would interpret that to mean he feels Pleasant is a slightly better team.

He also had Shelby only beating Ontario by 8.

I typed this up in the Shelby vs Ontario thread. It explains why Drew predicting Shelby to score 8 isn't all that bad. Basically, assume that if Shelby and Ontario played each other 100 times, 50% of all simulated outcomes would be bigger than 8 points in Shelby's favor, in some cases much bigger. In the case that the outcome was much bigger than 8 points, Drew's model will note how much better Shelby played than expected, which will be a factor in future games. 



"Jake, this ain't a slam, but I like to elaborate on these predictions by those guys for the sake of everybody on here as a whole, since they tend to be misleading in some sense. This is also my profession, so I like to make sure we know what we are seeing in those rankings.





The predicted winner is accurate, but not necessarily the score.





Those prediction systems are more better taken as an "expected value" output than an actual prediction of the score.



Expected value example: Deal or No Deal. There are two suitcases left. One has $500. The other has $1. The expected value of a selected suitcase is $250.50, which is determined by taking the weighted average of the outcomes. 50% chance of getting $500, and 50% chance of getting $1. In equation form:



(50% x 500) + (50% x 1) = $250.50.



So even though it is impossible for a selected suitcase to be $250.50, that is deemed the expected value of the suitcase. That is because if you were given 10,000 opportunities to pick between one of those two suitcases, the average value of money you would receive would wind up around $250.50.







Drew Pasteur runs 10,000 simulations of each matchup. The most likely outcome is beaten down to a regressed average based on those 10,000 simulations, just like the suitcases. He would be running a weighted average of each and every one of those 10,000 simulations. Simulation one has a weighted value of 0.0001, multiplied by the margin of victory for Shelby, say 10. Then the next simulation has a weighted value of 0.0001, multiplied by the margin of victory, say 24. Etc etc etc etc.





When I run my predictions for MLB scores (see the MLB thread), I would say 90% of games have predicted scores where both teams are scoring between 3-6 runs. My model will never predict a team to score 0 or 10 runs, because I am working off of an average of all outcomes. However, I know that if I predict a team to win by 2+ runs, that in reality they may score 7+ runs with great frequency.





Statistics are funky, man.



Read more: ncoast.proboards.com/thread/2436/week-4-shelby-42-ontario#ixzz60PaxsstO"

[Willard Fillmore]

Why such big spaces between thoughts??

[shelbyrr11]

In my original post, the formatting was tolerable. Then I copy-pasted it into this thread and the formatting became considerably less tolerable. Meh.

[wsmith]

Sept 23, 2019 9:31:00 GMT -5 wallpass said:

Pleasant has decided not to play several of their best players on defense to lower their possibility of getting hurt/worn out. It killed them against Harding and if they do it this week, Shelby will beat them bad! If they put their best athletes on the field instead of worrying about what might happen, this could be a close game. However, after watching what they have done with their talent the last few years, I have no confidence that this will happen.

May I ask who didn't play?

[wallpass]

Blubaugh, who is their best DB and played the first 3 games on defense, did not play D except for a play or two when a player got hurt. I understand he is the focal point on offense but he has played both sides of the ball since he was in 4th grade so it is nothing new. You also have a 6'4", 310# lineman who could have helped stop some of those inside runs that were killing Pleasant last week. Finally, their QB Schaffer has not played D all year but is a very capable defender. I get that most coaches do not want their QB playing defense but I think there are certain situations when it is all hands on deck like last week. With Shelby, Clear Fork and Galion still on the schedule, losing to Harding was not an option if you want a decent chance at making the playoffs.

[4]

That isn’t the reason pleasant lost, they were out played, less physical and turned the ball over. But their best players should play both ways. Most schools do it, even plenty of D1 schools. Harding’s Ayers plays both ways, had one of the best games I can remember Friday.

[BellevueBuckeye]

calpreps.com: Shelby 31 Pleasant 28
Drew Pasteur: Shelby by 1
Houseworth's: Shelby by 4

[galion]

This game interests me because I kind of get the feeling that Pleasant, as crazy as it sounds, might have been overlooking Harding a bit and had this game circled on their calendar.

[buckeye33]

Anyone know if this is being broadcast on radio?

[utsherman]

Pleasant 7
Shelby 0
1Q

[utsherman]

Pleasant 13
Shelby 0
1Q

Pleasant got the short field after the Whippets fumbled the kick.

[utsherman]

Pleasant 13
Shelby 7
1:51 1Q

[utsherman]

Same score. End of 1Q.

[utsherman]

Shelby 14
Pleasant 13
2Q

Whippets with 78-yard passing TD.

[utsherman]

Shelby 21
Pleasant 13
2Q

Whippets with a 62-yard passing strike this time.

[utsherman]

Shelby 21
Pleasant 21
8:09 2Q


Spartans answer with a long passing TD of their own. Covert the 2 pt. conversion to tie things up. Defense is optional thus far.

[utsherman]

Pleasant 27
Shelby 21
5:10 2Q

Pleasant blocks the Shelby punt and takes possession on the Whippet 7-yard line. Takes it in from short distance. Shelby blocks PAT. Huge momentum shifts back and forth in this game.

[utsherman]

Shelby 28
Pleasant 27
2:17 2Q

[utsherman]

Same score @ the Half.

[hungryhounds4ever]

No defense tonight lol

[utsherman]

Pleasant 33
Shelby 27
3Q

2 pt. conversation fails for the Spartans.

[utsherman]

Shelby 35
Pleasant 33
2:44 3Q

Back and forth we go. Pleasant had a long drive, but turned over on downs. Shelby capitalized.

[utsherman]

Same score. End of 3Q. Pleasant driving in Whippet territory when they start the 4th.