Computers after Regular Season - Conf Champ predictions

[Vogel]

Link to the computers prediction records over the last 6 games, mine obviously aren't included on that site
www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?type=2&orderby=wpct%20desc&year=22

(248-99) - Pi-Rating Mean
(245-102) - Pi-Rating Ratings
(244-103) - Dokter Entropy
(243-104) - Vogel Classic
(243-104) - Pi-Rating Bias
(243-104) - Sagarin Ratings
(243-104) - Vegas line (Updated)
(242-105) - FEI Projections
(242-105) - Laffaye RWP
(242-105) - Computer Adjusted Line
(241-106) - Billingsley
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(240-107) - ESPN FPI
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(232-115) - PerformanZ Ratings
(231-116) - Payne W/L
(231-116) - Waywardtrends
(230-117) - Catherwood Ratings
(219-128) - Cleanup Hitter



So where do the top ones rank the teams
Pi-Ratings
Dokter Entropy
Vogel Classic
Sagarin Ratings

	Pi-Ratings	Dokter	Vogel	Sagarin
1	(12-0) Georgia	(12-0) Georgia	(12-0) Georgia	(12-0) Georgia
2	(12-0) Michigan	(11-1) Ohio St	(12-0) Michigan	(11-1) Ohio St
3	(11-1) Ohio St	(10-2) Alabama	(11-1) Ohio St	(12-0) Michigan
4	(10-2) Alabama	(12-0) Michigan	(10-2) Tenn	(10-2) Alabama
5	(10-2) Penn St	(10-2) Tenn	(10-2) Alabama	(10-2) Tenn
6	(10-2) Tenn	(8-4) Texas	(12-0) TCU	(10-2) Penn St
7	(12-0) TCU	(12-0) TCU	(10-2) Penn St	(12-0) TCU
8	(9-3) Kansas St	(10-2) Penn St	(10-2) Clemson	(8-4) Texas
9	(8-4) Texas	(9-3) Utah	(8-4) Texas	(9-3) Utah
10	(9-3) Florida St	(9-3) Kansas St	(11-1) USC	(9-3) Kansas St
11	(10-2) Utah	(9-3) Florida St	(9-3) Oregon St	(11-1) USC
12	(10-2) Clemson	(11-1) USC	(9-3) LSU	(9-3) Oregon
13	(9-3) LSU	(10-2) Clemson	(9-3) Florida St	(10-2) Clemson
14	(9-3) Oregon	(9-3) LSU	(9-3) Utah	(10-2) Washington
15	(8-4) Minnesota	(9-3) Oregon	(10-2) Tulane	(9-3) LSU
16	(11-1) USC	(8-4) Miss St	(9-3) Kansas St	(9-3) Florida St
17	(8-4) Notre Dame	(8-4) Ole Miss	(9-3) Oregon	(9-3) Oregon St
18	(8-4) Illinois	(8-4) Illinois	(8-4) Illinois	(8-4) Notre Dame
19	(8-4) Miss St	(8-4) Minnesota	(8-4) Notre Dame	(6-6) Oklahoma
20	(9-3) Oregon St	(6-6) Oklahoma	(10-2) Troy	(6-6) Baylor

USC vs Utah - Pac 12
2.5 Southern Cal (Vegas)
2 Utah (Sagarin)
3 Utah (Pi-Rating Mean)
3 Southern Cal (Vogel)

Georgia vs LSU - SEC
17 Georgia (Vegas)
12 Georgia (Sagarin)
17 Georgia (Pi-Rating Mean)
14.5 Georgia (Vogel)

Michigan vs Purdue - Big Ten
16 Michigan (Vegas)
17.5 Michigan (Sagarin)
16 Michigan (Pi-Rating Mean)
24 Michigan (Vogel)

TCU vs Kansas State - Big XII
2.5 TCU (Vegas)
2.5 TCU (Sagarin)
4 TCU (Pi-Rating Mean)
8 TCU (Vogel)

Clemson vs North Carolina - ACC
7.5 Clemson (Vegas)
10.5 Clemson (Sagarin)
10 Clemson (Pi-Rating Mean)
14 Clemson (Vogel)

Tulane vs Central Florida - AAC
3 Tulane (Vegas)
3 Tulane (Sagarin)
4 Tulane (Pi-Rating Mean)
5 Tulane (Vogel)

Ohio vs Toledo - MAC
2.5 Toledo (Vegas)
4 Ohio (Sagarin)
2.5 Ohio (Pi-Rating Mean)
4.5 Ohio (Vogel)

Boise State vs Fresno State - MW
3.5 Boise St (Vegas)
5.5 Boise St (Sagarin)
5.5 Boise St (Pi-Rating Mean)
5.5 Boise St (Vogel)

Troy vs Coastal Carolina - Sun Belt
10 Troy (Vegas)
8 Troy (Sagarin)
9 Troy (Pi-Rating Mean)
10.5 Troy (Vogel)

UTSA vs North Texas - C-USA
8 UTSA (Vegas)
9 UTSA (Sagarin)
11 UTSA (Pi-Rating Mean)
13 UTSA (Vogel)

[Vogel]

Last year Georgia got beat (41-24) by Alabama in the SEC Champ game. Georgia was allowed in the playoff then went on to win it all.
This year Ohio St got beat (45-23) by Michigan. If USC loses to Utah I'm assuming Ohio St is getting in. Ohio St has the talent to win it all, can they execute well enough to win it all?

If USC goes down and TCU wins
#1 UGA vs #4 Ohio St
#2 Mich vs #3 TCU

Could have a OSU/Mich rematch for the National Championship.

I'm a Utah Ute fan this Friday night from 8 pm to about midnight.

I could see the committee leaving TCU in over Ohio St if TCU loses. I don't see the Committee leaving a 2 loss USC in over Ohio St

[Birdman]

Absolute chaos could ensue this weekend. Given the chance with ESPN still having the buckeyes with a very likely chance of making it, what team are we going to see….?

My fear would be the Buckeyes some how make it, get Dem Dogz, play like an elite team and win, then stumble against Michigan for 3 losses in 2 seasons. Ooof!

[browns624]

Nov 28, 2022 10:26:02 GMT -5 Birdman said:

Absolute chaos could ensue this weekend. Given the chance with ESPN still having the buckeyes with a very likely chance of making it, what team are we going to see….?

My fear would be the Buckeyes some how make it, get Dem Dogz, play like an elite team and win, then stumble against Michigan for 3 losses in 2 seasons. Ooof!

I think if USC or TCU lose the Buckeyes are probably getting in. 

[Birdman]

Buckeyes come in at #5…. The slip is set.

[redskinfan04]

OSU at 5 probably means that TCU is in win or lose.

[Birdman]

Nov 29, 2022 21:20:21 GMT -5 redskinfan04 said:

OSU at 5 probably means that TCU is in win or lose.

I think it’s going to depend on if they lose, how is that loss…? A close one or by a couple scores.

[jakethesnake2]

A competitive game against K-Srate still keeps TCU in .

[Vogel]

Some Computer Rankings

	Vogel Classic	Sagarin	Massey	Pi-Ratings	ESPN FPI
1	(13-0) Georgia	(13-0) Georgia	(13-0) Georgia	(13-0) Georgia	(13-0) Georgia
2	(13-0) Michigan	(11-1) Ohio St	(13-0) Michigan	(13-0) Michigan	(10-2) Alabama
3	(11-1) Ohio St	(10-2) Alabama	(11-1) Ohio St	(11-1) Ohio St	(11-1) Ohio St
4	(10-2) Tenn	(13-0) Michigan	(10-2) Alabama	(10-2) Alabama	(13-0) Michigan
5	(10-2) Alabama	(10-2) Tenn	(12-1) TCU	(10-2) Penn St	(10-2) Tenn
6	(10-2) Penn St	(10-3) Utah	(10-2) Penn St	(10-2) Tenn	(8-4) Texas
7	(11-2) Clemson	(10-2) Penn St	(10-2) Tenn	(12-1) TCU	(10-3) Utah
8	(12-1) TCU	(8-4) Texas	(10-3) K-State	(10-3) Utah	(10-2) Penn St

#12 USC - Vogel Classic
#14 USC - Sagarin
#12 USC - Massey
#23 USC - Pi-Rating
#15 USC - ESPN FPI

#10 TCU - Sagarin
#10 TCU - ESPN FPI

#11 Clemson - Massey
#10 Clemson - Pi-Ratings
#9 Clemson - ESPN FPI

[Vogel]

ESPN's Strength of Record that the Committee likes to use
#1 Georgia
#2 Michigan
#3 TCU
#4 Ohio St
#5 Alabama
#6 Tenn
#7 Penn St
#8 USC
#11 Clemson

ESPN's Strength of Schedule
#8 Tenn
#9 Alabama
#25 TCU
#36 Georgia
#37 Michigan
#38 USC
#39 Ohio St
#58 Clemson

ESPN's Game Control Metric
#1 Georgia
#2 Michigan
#3 Alabama
#4 Ohio St
#6 Tenn
#9 USC
#13 Clemson
#14 TCU

[Willard Fillmore]

Does Vogel Classic consider injuries and how they affect current performance?

[cbus]

Dec 4, 2022 22:52:10 GMT -5 Willard Fillmore said:

Does Vogel Classic consider injuries and how they affect current performance?

The answer has to be no.