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Post by dude on Oct 8, 2022 6:48:34 GMT -5
Current.
W Holmes - 5-0...8-0 Mansfield- 4-1..6-2 New Phil - 4-2...5-3 Wooster - 3-3...4-4 Ashland - 2-2...4-4 Lexington- 2-3...2-6 Madison - 1-4...1-7 Mt Vernon- 0-5...1-7
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Post by WoosterBuckeye on Oct 11, 2022 6:54:53 GMT -5
Anything less than a state championship for West Holmes would be a surprise with the way they have pretty much blown out every team they have played! Should be interesting to watch in post season.
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Post by dude on Oct 11, 2022 7:02:09 GMT -5
Anything less than a state championship for West Holmes would be a surprise with the way they have pretty much blown out every team they have played! Should be interesting to watch in post season. I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season.
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Post by WoosterBuckeye on Oct 11, 2022 14:28:18 GMT -5
Anything less than a state championship for West Holmes would be a surprise with the way they have pretty much blown out every team they have played! Should be interesting to watch in post season. I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season. I would tend to agree that blowing out OCC teams is not necessarily a qualifier for a state championship, but WH being in DIV4 I think makes it more probable. Fantastic 50 has a 36% chance for WH to win it all, but it is early yet.
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Post by dude on Oct 11, 2022 21:14:10 GMT -5
I would tend to agree that blowing out OCC teams is not necessarily a qualifier for a state championship, but WH being in DIV4 I think makes it more probable. Fantastic 50 has a 36% chance for WH to win it all, but it is early yet. So you are saying that there is a mathematical probability of 64% that WH does not win state in D4.
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Post by Willard Fillmore on Oct 11, 2022 22:08:17 GMT -5
$100 is cheap
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Post by dude on Oct 12, 2022 11:20:27 GMT -5
This week.
Mt Vernon at Mansfield Madison at Lexington Ashland at Wooster New Phil at W Holmes
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Post by unc4life on Oct 12, 2022 11:31:02 GMT -5
I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season. I would tend to agree that blowing out OCC teams is not necessarily a qualifier for a state championship, but WH being in DIV4 I think makes it more probable. Fantastic 50 has a 36% chance for WH to win it all, but it is early yet. I agree that WH is very good, and should make a deep run in the playoffs, but they have some weaknesses. Ashland's QB who is ok, just had a school record day against them throwing for 489 yards. I get it that some of it was dictated by the score of the game, but Ashland did get it back to within a 2 score game in the second half. (Odd enough the old school record was 466 yards by Keagan Armitage against West Holmes.)
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Post by dude on Oct 12, 2022 13:29:08 GMT -5
I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season. I would tend to agree that blowing out OCC teams is not necessarily a qualifier for a state championship, but WH being in DIV4 I think makes it more probable. Fantastic 50 has a 36% chance for WH to win it all, but it is early yet. From my vantagepoint once a team gets to the regional level everyone is good the regular season competition becomes a factor for the experience. WH is not getting much help in this area.
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 12, 2022 18:28:20 GMT -5
Anything less than a state championship for West Holmes would be a surprise with the way they have pretty much blown out every team they have played! Should be interesting to watch in post season. I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season. I think consistently blowing out football teams by halftime is a different marker of success than basketball, especially for a middle division school like West Holmes. I view West Holmes this year a lot like Shelby in 2017. Shelby's schedule that year was incredibly average, but they put the hurt on everyone in a convincing way. No random 35-21 wins. Everyone was put to sleep. They were a sincere state championship team until the RB got hurt against St. Mary's. West Holmes has a better schedule this year than Shelby did that year. Easily. The problem is D4 this year is incredible. The top 5-7 teams in D4 are entirely interchangeable with the top 5-7 D3 schools this year if you ask Pasteur. Glenville's league schedule is mostly bottom 10% teams, but the fact they held SVSM, Olentangy Liberty, and Avon to either their season low/2nd lowest scoring performances of the year says something. Hell, SVSM lost to Hoban 28-14 and to Glenville 25-0. That's insane.
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Post by dude on Oct 12, 2022 20:30:00 GMT -5
I have never considered blowing out the OCC teams as a qualifier to be considered as a state champ. Wooster basketball has done it before and not won a district championship. West Holmes may not even win their region when you consider Glenville has had 6 shutouts in their 8-0 season. I think consistently blowing out football teams by halftime is a different marker of success than basketball, especially for a middle division school like West Holmes. I view West Holmes this year a lot like Shelby in 2017. Shelby's schedule that year was incredibly average, but they put the hurt on everyone in a convincing way. No random 35-21 wins. Everyone was put to sleep. They were a sincere state championship team until the RB got hurt against St. Mary's. West Holmes has a better schedule this year than Shelby did that year. Easily. The problem is D4 this year is incredible. The top 5-7 teams in D4 are entirely interchangeable with the top 5-7 D3 schools this year if you ask Pasteur. Glenville's league schedule is mostly bottom 10% teams, but the fact they held SVSM, Olentangy Liberty, and Avon to either their season low/2nd lowest scoring performances of the year says something. Hell, SVSM lost to Hoban 28-14 and to Glenville 25-0. That's insane. I think football and basketball are different in many ways but I assume you understood my point that dominating a conference is hardly a indicator for a state title. You surely know this at Shelby. And for WH being “middle division “, they may have had a better chance in a bigger division. I can understand why you think this years WH team is better than your 2017 Shelby team, but we probably all agree their path this year is tougher to achieve the title.
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Post by shelbyrr11 on Oct 13, 2022 9:55:33 GMT -5
I do understand your point about dominating a conference. Conferences like the MOAC or OCC... you need a lot to justify your status as a contender compared to someone playing in the SBC Lake or WBL or someone like Clinton-Massie who steers into games against DeSales, etc.
When I look at scores throughout the state in D3-D5 and see teams that are putting up big numbers and going undefeated in a meh conference, I do the obvious thing and check what happens when that school played a fairly legit power.
In 2017, Shelby had a piddling schedule but wound up with the highest point differential *in the entire state across all divisions*. That in itself means little based on 9 of 10 games that regular season, but the 40-0 halftime lead on Bellevue and the eventual 46-0 final against a typical playoff team is the marker that made the entire thing legit.
The 2020 Whippets were good, but the 28-14 win over an above average Ontario DQ'd them from contention immediately in my eyes. I did think there was a shot at beating Van Wert that year, but I wasn't thinking they could keep it churning past that.
The 2021 West Holmes team had a lot going for them, but you can't beat a 4-7 Lex team 27-10 or a 2-8 MV team 39-21 and be considered a legit threat. When WH did play stronger teams like Mansfield that year, it was a close game.
In 2022, West Holmes is behaving much more like those 2017 Whippets than the 2020 Whippets. Steady blowouts against the teams that everyone blows out, but then they smack Mansfield in a way that only Massillon has done. That is the big marker for WH this year in my view. I would be similarly unsurprised if they lose against Glenville as I would be if they won state altogether this year.
Even point differential markers say this WH team is wildly different than last year.
Through Week 8 in 2021: +176, 22/game Through Week 8 in 2022: +299, 37.4/game
It's hard for me to deny that improvement.
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Post by dude on Oct 13, 2022 11:22:10 GMT -5
Fair enough and some good point. I will say that in 2017 the regular season win over Bellevue looks impressive but I do not have knowledge of the Bellevue locker room that day to know if players were missing or banged up from the previous week that played a factor. I try not to use a single contest to predict a season's outcome. I think a body of work does that well but as I said before, once a team reaches the regional level every team is good. At that point I feel the experiences and maybe struggles during the regular season can be very helpful.
No denying that WH is really good and they are having a really good season, but as someone already pointed out, when looked at objectively they still have a 64% probability of being defeated in the playoffs. So not everyone is seeing their dominance of the OCC as a state title.
Nobody can deny their margin of victory has not improved.
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Post by WoosterBuckeye on Oct 14, 2022 8:01:21 GMT -5
I think we have to put the statistics in context. 36% chance of winning it all and yes, you can automatically assume there is a 64% chance that they don't win. However, if you look at DIV4 probabilities on fantastic 50, the next closest school to WH is Steubenville with a 17% chance of winning it all and each successive school goes down from there. So pointing out that WH has a 36% of winning it all they are more than double the chance of the next school. Totally agree that once you get in the playoff's it is much more difficult because everyone is good and one injury could derail WH.
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Post by dude on Oct 14, 2022 9:01:03 GMT -5
I think we have to put the statistics in context. 36% chance of winning it all and yes, you can automatically assume there is a 64% chance that they don't win. However, if you look at DIV4 probabilities on fantastic 50, the next closest school to WH is Steubenville with a 17% chance of winning it all and each successive school goes down from there. So pointing out that WH has a 36% of winning it all they are more than double the chance of the next school. Totally agree that once you get in the playoff's it is much more difficult because everyone is good and one injury could derail WH. Another good point is the WH has a 52% probability of winning their region. It would appear the rest of the regions are much more competitive and that factors in as well. I will be fun to watch how these numbers change over the next few weeks.
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Post by unc4life on Oct 14, 2022 9:42:40 GMT -5
I think we have to put the statistics in context. 36% chance of winning it all and yes, you can automatically assume there is a 64% chance that they don't win. However, if you look at DIV4 probabilities on fantastic 50, the next closest school to WH is Steubenville with a 17% chance of winning it all and each successive school goes down from there. So pointing out that WH has a 36% of winning it all they are more than double the chance of the next school. Totally agree that once you get in the playoff's it is much more difficult because everyone is good and one injury could derail WH. Another good point is the WH has a 52% probability of winning their region. It would appear the rest of the regions are much more competitive and that factors in as well. I will be fun to watch how these numbers change over the next few weeks. While the other regions might have more top end talent, none of them have Glenville. If any team stays within 2 scores of Glenville in region 14 I will be surprised.
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OCC 2022
Oct 14, 2022 10:58:18 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by jakethesnake2 on Oct 14, 2022 10:58:18 GMT -5
Another good point is the WH has a 52% probability of winning their region. It would appear the rest of the regions are much more competitive and that factors in as well. I will be fun to watch how these numbers change over the next few weeks. While the other regions might have more top end talent, none of them have Glenville. If any team stays within 2 scores of Glenville in region 14 I will be surprised. I won't be. I believe someone like Van Wert can beat Glenville
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Post by unc4life on Oct 14, 2022 12:50:43 GMT -5
While the other regions might have more top end talent, none of them have Glenville. If any team stays within 2 scores of Glenville in region 14 I will be surprised. I won't be. I believe someone like Van Wert can beat Glenville Van Wert couldn't beat Wapakoneta....please don't tell me they could be Glenville. Glenville has already beaten 3 teams better then anyone in region 14. Look anything can happen on Friday nights, but lets be realistic.
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A no.1
All Conference
Posts: 149
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Post by A no.1 on Oct 14, 2022 13:00:10 GMT -5
Another good point is the WH has a 52% probability of winning their region. It would appear the rest of the regions are much more competitive and that factors in as well. I will be fun to watch how these numbers change over the next few weeks. Division 4 Region 15 is traditionally weak. Stoob somehow weasled their way back down to division 4 and will steamroll this region again. I thought maybe Bishop Hartley (who has been a hemorrhoid to Stoob over the years) would also contend for this region but they are having a down year.
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Post by sbclives on Oct 14, 2022 13:52:56 GMT -5
I won't be. I believe someone like Van Wert can beat Glenville Van Wert couldn't beat Wapakoneta....please don't tell me they could be Glenville. Glenville has already beaten 3 teams better then anyone in region 14. Look anything can happen on Friday nights, but lets be realistic. Wapakoneta is a very solid team that VW only lost to by a point. Glenville may have more talented players but how well do they execute and are they disciplined. Memorial is a good team in this region and VW put 70 on them. Not saying VW or WH would beat Glenville but they certainly have the teams to do it.
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OCC 2022
Oct 14, 2022 14:44:03 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Big Lex Fan on Oct 14, 2022 14:44:03 GMT -5
Any one of the top 3 in the region could knock each other off. Could be some very entertaining and interesting football.
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OCC 2022
Oct 14, 2022 20:57:36 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Big Lex Fan on Oct 14, 2022 20:57:36 GMT -5
OCC Scores 10/14/22
West Holmes 60 New Philadelphia 7
Mansfield Sr. 35 Mt. Vernon 0
Ashland 27 Wooster 20
Lexington 28 Madison 10
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Post by dude on Oct 14, 2022 21:54:22 GMT -5
So I took the time to go to the Lex Madison game tonight and I will say that I feel our friend Ramsfan owes the former Rams coach an apology. For the last couple years I have read numerous posts about how the Rams had talent but the coaching was holding them back. I saw a good coaching staff tonight giving kids plays and opportunities and the kids could not make plays. Missed tackles, balls over thrown, passes hitting hands, passes hitting numbers and successful plays were not made. It would seem that Madison does not have the kids to make plays, as ramfan stated while bashing the previous coach.
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Post by dude on Oct 14, 2022 21:58:31 GMT -5
Current.
W Holmes - 6-0...9-0 Mansfield- 5-1..7-2 New Phil - 4-3...5-4 Ashland - 3-3...5-4 Lexington- 3-3...3-6 Wooster - 3-4...4-5 Madison - 1-5...1-8 Mt Vernon- 0-6...1-8
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Post by dude on Oct 17, 2022 7:58:07 GMT -5
Going into week 10 it looks like the only undecided is who will tie for 3rd and 4th place in the OCC. Ashland and Lexington play to decide this.
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Post by malabar10 on Oct 17, 2022 9:29:48 GMT -5
Glenville is not being prepared for the playoffs by the other Senate teams. Granted, they have superior talent, you still have to be ready for the teams that can also play to championship level. West Holmes /Glenville would be a great regional final.
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OCC 2022
Oct 17, 2022 15:44:44 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by Big Lex Fan on Oct 17, 2022 15:44:44 GMT -5
Final week of the season... Mansfield Sr. @ Madison. - the TYgers 42-7.
Lexington @ Ashland - The Arrows 27-14. Lex will be getting ready for basketball.
West Holmes @ Mt. Vernon - the Knights name the score 56-0. West Holmes will give JV's plenty of reps. Getting ready for hopefully a long playoff run.
Villa Angela St. Joe's @ Wooster- earlier in the season I might have gave the Generals a shot but now I'll say VASJ 30-13.
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Post by dude on Oct 18, 2022 8:07:58 GMT -5
The OCC could have as many as 6 teams make the playoffs. As crazy as that sounds it may be possible. This new playoff format has dropped the playoff bar so low that the tag of making week 11 is being seen as an inconvenience by some.
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Post by fanofthegame on Oct 18, 2022 11:51:13 GMT -5
The OCC could have as many as 6 teams make the playoffs. As crazy as that sounds it may be possible. This new playoff format has dropped the playoff bar so low that the tag of making week 11 is being seen as an inconvenience by some. Wouldn’t surprise me if some schools with below average football teams who are looking forward to basketball start complaining. Kids aren’t stupid either. Is getting the snot kicked out of you in week one of the playoffs after an additional week of practice worth a meaningless t-shirt that says we went 5-5, made the playoffs, and all I got was this stinky t-shirt?
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Post by dude on Oct 18, 2022 18:22:05 GMT -5
5-5??? How about 4-6 or even 3-7.
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